{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c24ce449-6b05-48de-ad18-a3741d632c6b", "symbol": "600926", "name": "Bank of Hangzhou Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.341, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.736, "architecture_energy": 23.684, "architecture_maturity": 61.587, "architecture_confidence": 51.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.41, "rotation_up": 38.03, "upward_expansion": 20.05, "deceleration": 44.04, "rotation_down": 24.23, "downward_expansion": 56.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.952, 15.700998, 15.847956, 16.024738 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.0, "trend_reference": 16.118341, "distance_from_trend": -0.007342, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.418369, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.192395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.686855, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009901, "excess_performance": 0.033303, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007342, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004215, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.192395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078766, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016869, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068602, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009901, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.085262, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190503800, "relative_activity": 1.452417, "balance": 1.085262, "dry_up": 1.61191, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040595, "annualized_volatility": 0.195343, "from_high_reference": -0.082042, "from_low_reference": 0.09825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.118341, "fair_value_reference": 13.418369, "structural_low": 14.8, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.025994, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.002383, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.140959, "worst_return": -0.073755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038377, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.021049, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.131321, "worst_return": -0.111801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018817, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.011453, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.312977, "worst_return": -0.137778, "sufficient": 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15.442057, 15.878341, 16.025406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.74, "volume": 218835441, "typical_volume": 127558597.15, "trend": 16.054341, "fair_value": 13.341823, "relative_strength": 3.062567, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.730892, "energy": 40.456155, "activity_lines": [ 15.414, 15.467648, 15.83372, 16.005298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.450001, "volume": 221660586, "typical_volume": 129865208.8, "trend": 16.094341, "fair_value": 13.381049, "relative_strength": 7.282378, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.599986, "energy": 15.305256, "activity_lines": [ 15.811334, 15.631309, 15.860577, 16.030825 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.0, "volume": 190503800, "typical_volume": 131163286.6, "trend": 16.118341, "fair_value": 13.418369, "relative_strength": 1.686855, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.736166, "energy": 23.68409, "activity_lines": [ 15.952, 15.700998, 15.847956, 16.024738 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }