{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c24d4c68-9fbc-48a4-865c-e456d5a1fa43", "symbol": "UNM", "name": "Unum Group", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.417, "architecture_energy": 33.902, "architecture_maturity": 60.587, "architecture_confidence": 88.655, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.08, "rotation_up": 35.61, "upward_expansion": 64.04, "deceleration": 88.12, "rotation_down": 26.88, "downward_expansion": 16.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.996894, 88.546795, 86.706457, 83.855415 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 90.56, "trend_reference": 80.389306, "distance_from_trend": 0.126518, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.945991, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394389, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.782117, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.221803, "excess_performance": 0.096178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.126518, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054329, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.394389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074899, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037821, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086074, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.221803, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.232583, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7602039, "relative_activity": 1.136541, "balance": 1.232583, "dry_up": 1.139276, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048084, "annualized_volatility": 0.217202, "from_high_reference": -0.025922, "from_low_reference": 0.350471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.389306, "fair_value_reference": 64.945991, "structural_low": 68.612646, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.020416, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.001028, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.207829, "worst_return": -0.066262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054058, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.069719, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159491, "worst_return": -0.093715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.127005, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.013227, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.235164, "worst_return": -0.045789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002725, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085743, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051109, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010359, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012205, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011014, "active": false }, { 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39.798988, "activity_lines": [ 87.95981, 88.450815, 85.626924, 82.760817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.11, "volume": 10840492, "typical_volume": 7257267.95, "trend": 80.015164, "fair_value": 64.659399, "relative_strength": 2.303785, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.78659, "energy": 26.353961, "activity_lines": [ 87.120511, 88.108714, 85.989014, 83.175103 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.56, "volume": 7602039, "typical_volume": 6688750.9, "trend": 80.389306, "fair_value": 64.945991, "relative_strength": 3.782117, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.417443, "energy": 33.902102, "activity_lines": [ 87.996894, 88.546795, 86.706457, 83.855415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }