{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c24d55d3-b2d3-4341-91af-93a292d041a6", "symbol": "300002", "name": "Beijing Ultrapower Software Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.301, "architecture_energy": 21.097, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.66, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.3, "rotation_up": 27.93, "upward_expansion": 20.01, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 23.52, "downward_expansion": 56.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.25, 7.976599, 8.191932, 8.702898 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.52, "trend_reference": 9.582106, "distance_from_trend": -0.110843, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.626635, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.198241, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.348554, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.303352, "excess_performance": -0.310752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110843, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115396, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.198241, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114239, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058158, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.303352, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.559889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 363139597, "relative_activity": 1.850724, "balance": 0.559889, "dry_up": 1.7455, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092724, "annualized_volatility": 0.42249, "from_high_reference": -0.465831, "from_low_reference": 0.247438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.582106, "fair_value_reference": 10.626635, "structural_low": 6.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.011637, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.026034, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.176609, "worst_return": -0.234483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.076217, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.023976, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.32729, "worst_return": -0.184697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.121364, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.058986, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.383696, "worst_return": -0.327177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-32.566734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.557293, "energy": 40.365246, "activity_lines": [ 7.796, 7.681954, 8.216487, 8.85631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.56, "volume": 337450220, "typical_volume": 185824939.4, "trend": 9.682106, "fair_value": 10.638036, "relative_strength": -21.996077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.926441, "energy": 25.310401, "activity_lines": [ 8.081333, 7.829652, 8.201329, 8.777873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.52, "volume": 363139597, "typical_volume": 196214922.1, "trend": 9.582106, "fair_value": 10.626635, "relative_strength": -25.348554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.301427, "energy": 21.096617, "activity_lines": [ 8.25, 7.976599, 8.191932, 8.702898 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }