{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c253d30f-a57d-4fc8-b89e-262eeb25cfb8", "symbol": "CUEI", "name": "CIBC MSCI USA Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.141, "architecture_energy": 57.332, "architecture_maturity": 87.767, "architecture_confidence": 58.08, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.62, "rotation_up": 48.05, "upward_expansion": 76.47, "deceleration": 71.48, "rotation_down": 29.4, "downward_expansion": 14.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.78, 41.703744, 41.023644, 40.021316 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.619999, "trend_reference": 38.890433, "distance_from_trend": 0.095899, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.890907, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.336431, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.025978, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.148313, "excess_performance": 0.027892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095899, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.336431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027674, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017267, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148313, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.559708, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9700, "relative_activity": 0.456149, "balance": 1.559708, "dry_up": 0.891136, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022571, "annualized_volatility": 0.133471, "from_high_reference": -0.008837, "from_low_reference": 0.236271 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.890433, "fair_value_reference": 31.890907, "structural_low": 34.632309, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.016803, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.000318, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.065665, "worst_return": -0.049292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.048826, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.016532, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.18311, "worst_return": -0.03786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.072385, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.052612, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.190713, "worst_return": -0.036458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 31.289633, "relative_strength": 2.662501, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.437903, "energy": 86.613116, "activity_lines": [ 41.597063, 41.132178, 39.774969, 38.967161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.25, "volume": 44100, "typical_volume": 24160.0, "trend": 38.322676, "fair_value": 31.414541, "relative_strength": 1.610662, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.031945, "energy": 84.738626, "activity_lines": [ 41.915489, 41.422892, 40.122289, 39.232019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.240002, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 23600.0, "trend": 38.461357, "fair_value": 31.53142, "relative_strength": -0.583882, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.295451, "energy": 67.240093, "activity_lines": [ 41.780724, 41.46428, 40.34911, 39.420234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.130001, "volume": 14400, "typical_volume": 22275.0, "trend": 38.599024, "fair_value": 31.646599, "relative_strength": -1.000203, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.969968, "energy": 63.562541, "activity_lines": [ 41.582706, 41.457202, 40.5442, 39.592404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.369999, "volume": 21700, "typical_volume": 21125.0, "trend": 38.742842, "fair_value": 31.764809, "relative_strength": 0.106472, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.186912, "energy": 52.349233, "activity_lines": [ 41.482667, 41.474364, 40.73771, 39.771177 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.619999, "volume": 9700, "typical_volume": 21265.0, "trend": 38.890433, "fair_value": 31.890907, "relative_strength": -0.025978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.14135, "energy": 57.331999, "activity_lines": [ 41.78, 41.703744, 41.023644, 40.021316 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }