{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c253ed19-5401-4399-bdf4-aba7cc6bf81f", "symbol": "CHAR", "name": "Chariot Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.7, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.887, "architecture_energy": 6.619, "architecture_maturity": 25.359, "architecture_confidence": 66.999, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.42, "rotation_up": 22.05, "upward_expansion": 46.98, "deceleration": 75.64, "rotation_down": 28.93, "downward_expansion": 27.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.015323, 0.015527, 0.015729, 0.015435 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.01475, "trend_reference": 0.015126, "distance_from_trend": -0.024877, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.046829, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.685023, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.486596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032787, "excess_performance": -0.084022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006945, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.685023, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032822, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032787, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462953, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38396924, "relative_activity": 1.045975, "balance": 0.462953, "dry_up": 0.595466, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091056, "annualized_volatility": 0.39612, "from_high_reference": -0.344444, "from_low_reference": 0.340909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.015126, "fair_value_reference": 0.046829, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015788, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.015075, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.545577, "worst_return": -0.278633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.380457, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.361915, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.803829, "worst_return": 0.039787, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.662826, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.657763, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.49011, "worst_return": -0.164459, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.08059, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.072034, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.08059, "worst_return": 1.08059, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117645, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245283, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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20.899705, "energy": 13.882147, "activity_lines": [ 0.015613, 0.015879, 0.015657, 0.01536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.016, "volume": 25673103, "typical_volume": 39436802.45, "trend": 0.015193, "fair_value": 0.049416, "relative_strength": -3.023628, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.990149, "energy": 16.334174, "activity_lines": [ 0.015683, 0.015867, 0.015737, 0.015413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0157, "volume": 15199954, "typical_volume": 39184092.5, "trend": 0.015203, "fair_value": 0.048557, "relative_strength": -5.908794, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.314753, "energy": 14.862207, "activity_lines": [ 0.015667, 0.015809, 0.015779, 0.015446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0155, "volume": 8166415, "typical_volume": 36623684.45, "trend": 0.015211, "fair_value": 0.047695, "relative_strength": -8.063379, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.15114, "energy": 11.060393, "activity_lines": [ 0.015603, 0.015733, 0.015794, 0.015465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01475, "volume": 38396924, "typical_volume": 36709221.0, "trend": 0.015126, "fair_value": 0.046829, "relative_strength": -12.486596, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.887131, "energy": 6.619401, "activity_lines": [ 0.015323, 0.015527, 0.015729, 0.015435 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }