{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2552734-b05f-4cfd-bcf6-8f1d142cb359", "symbol": "688585", "name": "Swancor Advanced Materials Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.901, "architecture_energy": 16.102, "architecture_maturity": 49.305, "architecture_confidence": 95.062, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.61, "rotation_up": 33.67, "upward_expansion": 50.78, "deceleration": 77.41, "rotation_down": 32.97, "downward_expansion": 28.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 147.430664, 148.911817, 149.980713, 145.29301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 169.399994, "trend_reference": 141.551666, "distance_from_trend": 0.196736, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.654573, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.554748, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 35.832044, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.255838, "excess_performance": 0.299042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.196736, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.554748, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274774, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.35832, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025632, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.255838, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.483604, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30264551, "relative_activity": 1.450345, "balance": 1.483604, "dry_up": 1.194786, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194051, "annualized_volatility": 0.868865, "from_high_reference": -0.241175, "from_low_reference": 1.382225 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 141.551666, "fair_value_reference": 47.654573, "structural_low": 99.480003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.094703, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.052051, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 5.425279, "worst_return": -0.039714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.396434, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.39962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.623325, "worst_return": 0.138042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 5.436808, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 5.295969, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 9.705577, "worst_return": 1.16804, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 17799266, "typical_volume": 20014578.3, "trend": 138.061667, "fair_value": 44.990694, "relative_strength": 9.473501, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.70045, "energy": 12.335372, "activity_lines": [ 145.334667, 153.855273, 148.449666, 143.777139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.400002, "volume": 19958323, "typical_volume": 19956598.2, "trend": 138.571667, "fair_value": 45.66544, "relative_strength": -3.741052, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.892438, "energy": 23.123473, "activity_lines": [ 132.972667, 145.696546, 145.805905, 142.186064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 157.479996, "volume": 31704915, "typical_volume": 20152291.4, "trend": 140.150667, "fair_value": 46.620916, "relative_strength": 31.190811, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.274795, "energy": 12.391234, "activity_lines": [ 138.500665, 145.988727, 147.405381, 143.405957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 169.399994, "volume": 30264551, "typical_volume": 20867145.2, "trend": 141.551666, "fair_value": 47.654573, "relative_strength": 35.832044, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.90125, "energy": 16.10169, "activity_lines": [ 147.430664, 148.911817, 149.980713, 145.29301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }