{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c25646dd-5ebc-4422-a401-0c635ba0f256", "symbol": "ARIN", "name": "Arinsiri Land Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.2, "architecture_energy": 14.295, "architecture_maturity": 20.966, "architecture_confidence": 61.232, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.92, "rotation_up": 24.72, "upward_expansion": 22.73, "deceleration": 40.91, "rotation_down": 37.52, "downward_expansion": 54.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.504, 0.502182, 0.503667, 0.509011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.5, "trend_reference": 0.523667, "distance_from_trend": -0.045194, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.363846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.63339, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.180899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074074, "excess_performance": -0.266399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045194, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053044, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.63339, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058115, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028351, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.814307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3106000, "relative_activity": 0.562309, "balance": 3.814307, "dry_up": 1.833786, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083077, "annualized_volatility": 0.473826, "from_high_reference": -0.468085, "from_low_reference": 0.136364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.523667, "fair_value_reference": 1.363846, "structural_low": 0.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.017241, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004853, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.951807, "worst_return": -0.348148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.137931, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.15881, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.506024, "worst_return": -0.592593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.192593, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.257071, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.53012, "worst_return": -0.711111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.348148, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.223502, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 5.807229, "worst_return": -0.511111, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2023-03-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165517, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.627841, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.410256, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179487, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172414, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.6, "volume": 646700, "typical_volume": 581680.0, "trend": 4.441667, "fair_value": 3.026603, "relative_strength": -24.223799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.88913, "energy": 20.624152, "activity_lines": [ 3.732, 3.639273, 3.699333, 3.979849 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 4.6, "volume": 1501900, "typical_volume": 644220.0, "trend": 4.406667, "fair_value": 3.049808, "relative_strength": -5.547471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.785554, "energy": 17.493125, "activity_lines": [ 4.033333, 3.824727, 3.764, 3.990065 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 4.72, "volume": 662900, "typical_volume": 669820.0, "trend": 4.354, "fair_value": 3.073974, "relative_strength": -2.963323, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.690989, "energy": 29.663635, "activity_lines": [ 4.306667, 4.011273, 3.841524, 4.01028 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 4.46, "volume": 457600, "typical_volume": 680320.0, "trend": 4.302667, "fair_value": 3.096603, "relative_strength": -7.014551, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.559901, "energy": 32.732248, "activity_lines": [ 4.418667, 4.127636, 3.895524, 4.017118 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 4.58, "volume": 165100, "typical_volume": 661460.0, "trend": 4.258667, "fair_value": 3.119487, "relative_strength": -3.880811, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.140418, "energy": 43.511202, "activity_lines": [ 4.513333, 4.249091, 3.963048, 4.035011 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 4.24, "volume": 176000, "typical_volume": 649205.0, "trend": 4.21, "fair_value": 3.140513, "relative_strength": -9.150382, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.277575, "energy": 40.101138, "activity_lines": [ 4.462667, 4.289455, 3.998571, 4.033806 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 4.16, 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"fair_value": 1.446218, "relative_strength": -26.628536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.505614, "energy": 30.131804, "activity_lines": [ 0.495333, 0.500364, 0.502, 0.514882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.53, "volume": 30247800, "typical_volume": 6291350.0, "trend": 0.531667, "fair_value": 1.426667, "relative_strength": -23.056628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.894468, "energy": 10.113793, "activity_lines": [ 0.507333, 0.505273, 0.504238, 0.514581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5, "volume": 4025100, "typical_volume": 5880780.0, "trend": 0.528333, "fair_value": 1.406795, "relative_strength": -27.180345, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.726471, "energy": 11.031112, "activity_lines": [ 0.506, 0.504182, 0.504048, 0.512538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5, "volume": 3137900, "typical_volume": 5738945.0, "trend": 0.526333, "fair_value": 1.386923, "relative_strength": -26.120347, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.46488, "energy": 14.728135, "activity_lines": [ 0.505333, 0.502909, 0.503857, 0.51071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5, "volume": 3106000, "typical_volume": 5523655.0, "trend": 0.523667, "fair_value": 1.363846, "relative_strength": -25.180899, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.199962, "energy": 14.294894, "activity_lines": [ 0.504, 0.502182, 0.503667, 0.509011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }