{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c259fa5f-7e41-4427-bff3-c0da31929b3c", "symbol": "BRSR3", "name": "Banco do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.845, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.473, "architecture_energy": 10.165, "architecture_maturity": 21.31, "architecture_confidence": 72.502, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.8, "rotation_up": 25.22, "upward_expansion": 24.98, "deceleration": 44.77, "rotation_down": 22.72, "downward_expansion": 44.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.720667, 17.691747, 17.625029, 17.831169 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.67, "trend_reference": 18.060738, "distance_from_trend": -0.021635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.465275, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.417538, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.779411, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.051363, "excess_performance": 0.005685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021635, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.417538, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067794, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030427, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051363, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.717117, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27700, "relative_activity": 1.396169, "balance": 0.717117, "dry_up": 0.947581, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038583, "annualized_volatility": 0.216981, "from_high_reference": -0.107055, "from_low_reference": 0.702417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.060738, "fair_value_reference": 12.465275, "structural_low": 16.231882, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.021569, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.012387, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.1375, "worst_return": -0.059072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.054323, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.027246, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.373581, "worst_return": -0.084339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.093208, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.048884, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.772651, "worst_return": -0.157101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.941633, "energy": 13.997779, "activity_lines": [ 17.426541, 17.36631, 17.831516, 17.898835 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 17.549999, "volume": 6700, "typical_volume": 26250.0, "trend": 17.672973, "fair_value": 12.22271, "relative_strength": 8.436808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.48971, "energy": 9.973674, "activity_lines": [ 17.497495, 17.377195, 17.769184, 17.898503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.9, "volume": 5700, "typical_volume": 22120.0, "trend": 17.805899, "fair_value": 12.261505, "relative_strength": 9.460423, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.620019, "energy": 12.53883, "activity_lines": [ 17.665739, 17.466483, 17.745312, 17.91315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.5, "volume": 27200, "typical_volume": 22875.0, "trend": 17.882085, "fair_value": 12.299224, "relative_strength": 4.457392, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.977788, "energy": 8.2868, "activity_lines": [ 17.653329, 17.489836, 17.687791, 17.893415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.59, "volume": 19300, "typical_volume": 21845.0, "trend": 17.952109, "fair_value": 12.337726, "relative_strength": 7.039933, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.592387, "energy": 16.335714, "activity_lines": [ 17.617333, 17.530736, 17.647769, 17.874571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.98, "volume": 16800, "typical_volume": 21305.0, "trend": 18.019158, "fair_value": 12.380473, "relative_strength": 8.678417, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.068335, "energy": 14.843745, "activity_lines": [ 17.740667, 17.638329, 17.654938, 17.87637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.71, "volume": 11400, "typical_volume": 19845.0, "trend": 18.061453, "fair_value": 12.422155, "relative_strength": 4.247567, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.108431, "energy": 10.308649, "activity_lines": [ 17.742667, 17.672771, 17.639565, 17.856424 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.67, "volume": 27700, "typical_volume": 19840.0, "trend": 18.060738, "fair_value": 12.465275, "relative_strength": 6.779411, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.473477, "energy": 10.164969, "activity_lines": [ 17.720667, 17.691747, 17.625029, 17.831169 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }