{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c26c2495-7808-4b9d-954b-7f94419f079e", "symbol": "GBF", "name": "Bilfinger SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.203, "architecture_energy": 47.585, "architecture_maturity": 45.147, "architecture_confidence": 95.429, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.92, "rotation_up": 25.11, "upward_expansion": 6.79, "deceleration": 50.64, "rotation_down": 54.63, "downward_expansion": 82.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.850002, 82.77091, 85.451552, 89.579271 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 80.650002, "trend_reference": 96.305541, "distance_from_trend": -0.162561, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.468883, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270701, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.136753, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.323523, "excess_performance": -0.388163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162561, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055065, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270701, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.370351, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228928, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323523, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.604881, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 348742, "relative_activity": 0.879614, "balance": 0.604881, "dry_up": 0.926073, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077032, "annualized_volatility": 0.427549, "from_high_reference": -0.355961, "from_low_reference": 0.022828 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.305541, "fair_value_reference": 63.468883, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 83.550003, "volume": 330762, "typical_volume": 438095.2, "trend": 98.911984, "fair_value": 62.458986, "relative_strength": -15.221116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.756744, "energy": 39.388052, "activity_lines": [ 84.3, 84.083537, 88.033905, 92.784161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.550003, "volume": 393088, "typical_volume": 418822.6, "trend": 98.134082, "fair_value": 62.790267, "relative_strength": -17.956055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.238178, "energy": 44.04152, "activity_lines": [ 83.276668, 83.589091, 87.088738, 91.664033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.5, "volume": 396054, "typical_volume": 410417.45, "trend": 97.329738, "fair_value": 63.130414, "relative_strength": -18.504152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.318462, "energy": 44.776018, "activity_lines": [ 82.880001, 83.296364, 86.326268, 90.655383 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.650002, "volume": 348742, "typical_volume": 396471.6, "trend": 96.305541, "fair_value": 63.468883, "relative_strength": -22.136753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.203416, "energy": 47.58455, "activity_lines": [ 81.850002, 82.77091, 85.451552, 89.579271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }