{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2703dd8-18fe-4e7b-9ec6-17b45c2f4977", "symbol": "MHD", "name": "BlackRock MuniHoldings Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.258, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.987, "architecture_energy": 17.585, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.886, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.88, "rotation_up": 25.18, "upward_expansion": 55.04, "deceleration": 87.25, "rotation_down": 36.77, "downward_expansion": 21.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.575393, 11.636448, 11.617832, 11.586165 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.62, "trend_reference": 11.565259, "distance_from_trend": 0.004733, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.780636, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.131471, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000925, "excess_performance": -0.12655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004733, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023871, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028111, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000925, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.95941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1487508, "relative_activity": 0.803594, "balance": 0.95941, "dry_up": 0.767713, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020902, "annualized_volatility": 0.103946, "from_high_reference": -0.033258, "from_low_reference": 0.112214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.565259, "fair_value_reference": 10.780636, "structural_low": 10.990818, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.002368, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.007264, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.04894, "worst_return": -0.043068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004644, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.037648, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.08996, "worst_return": -0.072315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00455, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.070707, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.054421, "worst_return": -0.013571, 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"energy": 60.081609, "activity_lines": [ 11.762429, 11.682807, 11.610999, 11.579962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.77, "volume": 1530735, "typical_volume": 1915762.85, "trend": 11.550268, "fair_value": 10.748499, "relative_strength": -4.759524, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.040495, "energy": 56.438564, "activity_lines": [ 11.776634, 11.70819, 11.631166, 11.595186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.44, "volume": 1243787, "typical_volume": 1882422.55, "trend": 11.557782, "fair_value": 10.757529, "relative_strength": -6.768187, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.044362, "energy": 18.117611, "activity_lines": [ 11.671012, 11.672477, 11.619475, 11.588071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.47, "volume": 1422332, "typical_volume": 1852771.0, "trend": 11.561769, "fair_value": 10.768493, "relative_strength": -7.346612, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.427651, "energy": 11.473902, "activity_lines": [ 11.590823, 11.642075, 11.611455, 11.582408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.62, "volume": 1487508, "typical_volume": 1851069.8, "trend": 11.565259, "fair_value": 10.780636, "relative_strength": -9.131471, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.987471, "energy": 17.584944, "activity_lines": [ 11.575393, 11.636448, 11.617832, 11.586165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }