{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c27fd0fd-cbd6-4b43-b1cd-9315e6c2f176",
    "symbol": "QLIRO",
    "name": "Qliro AB (publ)",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -44.76,
    "architecture_energy": 38.319,
    "architecture_maturity": 38.162,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.738,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 40.55,
        "rotation_up": 17.71,
        "upward_expansion": 12.57,
        "deceleration": 35.93,
        "rotation_down": 56.26,
        "downward_expansion": 74.23
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        18.196667,
        18.497273,
        18.623333,
        18.65595
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 18.700001,
    "trend_reference": 18.662222,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.002024,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 21.450914,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128242,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -11.233536,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.056497,
    "excess_performance": -0.004997,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002024,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021623,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.128242,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033194,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.112335,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042023,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056497,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.753075,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 281144,
      "relative_activity": 1.289107,
      "balance": 0.753075,
      "dry_up": 1.222348,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.052653,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.367886,
      "from_high_reference": -0.217573,
      "from_low_reference": 0.129909
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 18.662222,
      "fair_value_reference": 21.450914,
      "structural_low": 17.1,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.001429,
        "positive_rate": 0.466667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.466667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.011449,
        "regime_survival": 0.466667,
        "best_return": 0.137339,
        "worst_return": -0.096899,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.050792,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025136,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.811912,
        "worst_return": -0.173913,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.20498,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.219113,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.931818,
        "worst_return": -0.338086,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.187882,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.260185,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.482759,
        "worst_return": -0.273764,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.08365,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.071942,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.096899,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.004386,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.029167,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.008696,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.054167,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.140969,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007813,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005236,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.06383,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.050562,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 141755.65,
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      },
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        "typical_volume": 131215.4,
        "trend": 18.228889,
        "fair_value": 21.812773,
        "relative_strength": -18.507606,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -15.747669,
        "energy": 21.037364,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.756667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -10.784877,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 188354.7,
        "trend": 18.257222,
        "fair_value": 21.845465,
        "relative_strength": -6.530109,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.228999,
        "energy": 18.711296,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.596666,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 208717.25,
        "trend": 18.270555,
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        "relative_strength": -10.495218,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.034302,
        "energy": 25.905062,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 215549.55,
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        "relative_strength": -13.671302,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 18.297222,
        "fair_value": 21.883926,
        "relative_strength": -13.102077,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.081581,
        "energy": 34.454707,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.05,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 19.450001,
        "volume": 35824,
        "typical_volume": 206447.95,
        "trend": 18.360555,
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        "relative_strength": -9.263986,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 19.449696,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 19.15,
        "volume": 26844,
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        "fair_value": 21.768542,
        "relative_strength": -11.942911,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "energy": 22.478297,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 19.0,
        "volume": 76260,
        "typical_volume": 193746.2,
        "trend": 18.578889,
        "fair_value": 21.714696,
        "relative_strength": -9.958427,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.757204,
        "energy": 17.573204,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.036667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 19.1,
        "volume": 274001,
        "typical_volume": 199732.2,
        "trend": 18.635555,
        "fair_value": 21.651875,
        "relative_strength": -7.700774,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.764214,
        "energy": 18.621332,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.043333,
          19.064546,
          18.844762,
          18.801434
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 17.549999,
        "volume": 343423,
        "typical_volume": 213113.0,
        "trend": 18.637222,
        "fair_value": 21.582324,
        "relative_strength": -15.669096,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -22.698317,
        "energy": 14.80397,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.556666,
          18.772727,
          18.724444,
          18.731398
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 17.4,
        "volume": 167770,
        "typical_volume": 216030.35,
        "trend": 18.632222,
        "fair_value": 21.504119,
        "relative_strength": -16.593375,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -36.749396,
        "energy": 39.032835,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.11,
          18.496364,
          18.603413,
          18.651577
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 18.700001,
        "volume": 281144,
        "typical_volume": 218092.1,
        "trend": 18.662222,
        "fair_value": 21.450914,
        "relative_strength": -11.233536,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -44.760115,
        "energy": 38.319347,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.196667,
          18.497273,
          18.623333,
          18.65595
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}