{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c28442e5-56c7-4d1f-ae6a-8d9de0f958bc", "symbol": "FSBC", "name": "Five Star Bancorp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.929, "architecture_energy": 38.789, "architecture_maturity": 85.332, "architecture_confidence": 58.543, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.51, "rotation_up": 42.34, "upward_expansion": 67.18, "deceleration": 65.46, "rotation_down": 25.87, "downward_expansion": 17.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.837322, 46.986443, 45.219932, 43.615624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.075, "trend_reference": 41.760526, "distance_from_trend": 0.103315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.338493, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.570462, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.166117, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120342, "excess_performance": -0.067111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103315, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102318, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.570462, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038047, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.061661, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031584, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120342, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.220252, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 768985, "relative_activity": 1.174167, "balance": 1.220252, "dry_up": 1.70158, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05975, "annualized_volatility": 0.216038, "from_high_reference": -0.078423, "from_low_reference": 0.604513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.760526, "fair_value_reference": 29.338493, "structural_low": 34.963907, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.010426, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.011493, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.131455, "worst_return": -0.107949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035803, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.059138, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.219135, "worst_return": -0.087528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017732, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.15494, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.272706, "worst_return": -0.361078, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 48.013552, 46.482061, 44.052028, 42.555622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.563942, "volume": 2179873, "typical_volume": 619901.7, "trend": 41.036487, "fair_value": 29.019337, "relative_strength": 14.45557, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.575322, "energy": 59.612216, "activity_lines": [ 47.675798, 46.761941, 44.490499, 42.935253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.941945, "volume": 939835, "typical_volume": 640542.85, "trend": 41.434715, "fair_value": 29.179518, "relative_strength": 14.14485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.674431, "energy": 51.135444, "activity_lines": [ 47.351116, 46.998296, 44.921941, 43.31625 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.075, "volume": 768985, "typical_volume": 654919.8, "trend": 41.760526, "fair_value": 29.338493, "relative_strength": 6.166117, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.928735, "energy": 38.78918, "activity_lines": [ 46.837322, 46.986443, 45.219932, 43.615624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }