{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c285bc8e-d6e7-469a-bb23-4336b52a0054", "symbol": "BTW", "name": "BT Wealth Industries Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.369, "architecture_energy": 19.302, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.794, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.75, "rotation_up": 25.33, "upward_expansion": 14.7, "deceleration": 41.89, "rotation_down": 36.75, "downward_expansion": 62.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.073333, 0.072545, 0.07319, 0.077548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.07, "trend_reference": 0.084667, "distance_from_trend": -0.173228, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.204744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.658109, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.22647, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.363636, "excess_performance": -0.555961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.658109, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002207, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.422265, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033501, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.097417, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1682600, "relative_activity": 1.372688, "balance": 0.097417, "dry_up": 0.507864, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208791, "annualized_volatility": 0.65242, "from_high_reference": -0.5625, "from_low_reference": 0.4 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.084667, "fair_value_reference": 0.204744, "structural_low": 0.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 52, "median_return": -0.028629, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.035613, "regime_survival": 0.942308, "best_return": 0.291667, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.117647, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": -0.150584, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.45, "worst_return": -0.242424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.235294, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.245951, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.115385, "worst_return": -0.404762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.372231, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.323908, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.147059, "worst_return": -0.595238, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-09-24", "end": "2021-10-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-10-08", "end": "2021-11-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-11-12", "end": "2022-05-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.041237, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-05-27", "end": "2022-06-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-06-17", "end": "2022-06-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-07-01", "end": "2022-10-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.147368, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-11-04", "end": "2023-03-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-03-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-17", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.566667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030303, "active": false 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0.074571, 0.080215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.07, "volume": 288600, "typical_volume": 1440325.0, "trend": 0.087, "fair_value": 0.208846, "relative_strength": -45.351525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.027999, "energy": 21.505804, "activity_lines": [ 0.073333, 0.070545, 0.073714, 0.079032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.08, "volume": 65000, "typical_volume": 1329970.0, "trend": 0.086, "fair_value": 0.206795, "relative_strength": -35.666272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.761632, "energy": 15.90919, "activity_lines": [ 0.075333, 0.072545, 0.073905, 0.078581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.07, "volume": 1682600, "typical_volume": 1225770.0, "trend": 0.084667, "fair_value": 0.204744, "relative_strength": -42.22647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.369481, "energy": 19.302231, "activity_lines": [ 0.073333, 0.072545, 0.07319, 0.077548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }