{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c28b45a9-8009-4c8c-9278-232949b6f476", "symbol": "AUCHAH", "name": "UBS Gold H CHF ETF CHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.259, "architecture_energy": 51.158, "architecture_maturity": 62.894, "architecture_confidence": 69.083, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.63, "rotation_up": 26.51, "upward_expansion": 20.38, "deceleration": 66.66, "rotation_down": 49.78, "downward_expansion": 72.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.457334, 133.202547, 138.146572, 143.144989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 139.779999, "trend_reference": 149.581333, "distance_from_trend": -0.065525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 107.463389, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300722, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.659167, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.140978, "excess_performance": -0.223862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300722, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203636, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20506, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140978, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.531847, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120762, "relative_activity": 0.87427, "balance": 0.531847, "dry_up": 0.731193, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03927, "annualized_volatility": 0.235181, "from_high_reference": -0.238505, "from_low_reference": 0.244923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 149.581333, "fair_value_reference": 107.463389, "structural_low": 127.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000153, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001332, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.086905, "worst_return": -0.047042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031061, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.011773, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.077863, "worst_return": -0.035933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.1036, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112676, "worst_return": 0.039133, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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129.020004, "volume": 101292, "typical_volume": 159443.3, "trend": 150.984666, "fair_value": 106.287492, "relative_strength": -17.435433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.653972, "energy": 89.204326, "activity_lines": [ 131.654669, 134.781456, 141.444381, 146.408129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 131.0, "volume": 138415, "typical_volume": 153527.35, "trend": 150.409333, "fair_value": 106.657492, "relative_strength": -16.024412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.878417, "energy": 73.831869, "activity_lines": [ 131.214669, 133.482183, 139.923048, 145.118796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 129.940002, "volume": 43527, "typical_volume": 147699.15, "trend": 149.904666, "fair_value": 107.025953, "relative_strength": -16.755794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.103343, "energy": 66.161705, "activity_lines": [ 130.630669, 132.295274, 138.481905, 143.798194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 139.779999, "volume": 120762, "typical_volume": 138129.0, "trend": 149.581333, "fair_value": 107.463389, "relative_strength": -11.659167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.259213, "energy": 51.158117, "activity_lines": [ 133.457334, 133.202547, 138.146572, 143.144989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }