{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c293609b-7203-452c-9f0a-7f8bc7bfa84d", "symbol": "ARDX", "name": "Ardelyx Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -90.466, "architecture_energy": 87.149, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.163, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.04, "rotation_up": 9.82, "upward_expansion": 18.9, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 84.55, "downward_expansion": 96.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.704667, 5.027455, 5.465381, 5.672667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.0, "trend_reference": 6.019333, "distance_from_trend": -0.335475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.762147, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.305814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.638633, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.453552, "excess_performance": -0.641006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.335475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.305814, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.514529, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.416386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.426187, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.453552, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.265528, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36513428, "relative_activity": 1.973046, "balance": 0.265528, "dry_up": 0.994769, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140144, "annualized_volatility": 0.584006, "from_high_reference": -0.52381, "from_low_reference": 0.025641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.019333, "fair_value_reference": 5.762147, "structural_low": 3.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.021488, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.009352, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.468822, "worst_return": -0.315068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.100223, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.035302, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.422447, "worst_return": -0.321429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.100668, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.072579, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 3.512143, "worst_return": -0.497917, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.429844, "energy": 63.930962, "activity_lines": [ 5.338667, 5.528909, 5.803524, 5.966581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.03, "volume": 12137271, "typical_volume": 17764655.1, "trend": 6.184, "fair_value": 5.755545, "relative_strength": -23.107341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.090344, "energy": 68.912382, "activity_lines": [ 5.192, 5.407455, 5.721048, 5.890602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.95, "volume": 11006131, "typical_volume": 17626092.65, "trend": 6.144, "fair_value": 5.762212, "relative_strength": -24.645082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.491917, "energy": 72.981661, "activity_lines": [ 5.086667, 5.293273, 5.636476, 5.810989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.0, "volume": 36513428, "typical_volume": 18506121.15, "trend": 6.019333, "fair_value": 5.762147, "relative_strength": -41.638633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.465611, "energy": 87.148716, "activity_lines": [ 4.704667, 5.027455, 5.465381, 5.672667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }