{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c29397e5-b2a0-4d68-9a14-193d33a783a4", "symbol": "POR", "name": "Portland General Electric Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.784, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.05, "architecture_energy": 18.509, "architecture_maturity": 16.931, "architecture_confidence": 62.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.47, "rotation_up": 27.44, "upward_expansion": 14.61, "deceleration": 55.51, "rotation_down": 47.51, "downward_expansion": 42.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.424, 51.047135, 50.675109, 50.861532 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 49.05, "trend_reference": 50.949465, "distance_from_trend": -0.037281, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.803203, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145942, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.595026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021599, "excess_performance": -0.147224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037281, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021681, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032018, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021599, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.288338, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5720680, "relative_activity": 0.97984, "balance": 1.288338, "dry_up": 0.927557, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042926, "annualized_volatility": 0.217015, "from_high_reference": -0.101977, "from_low_reference": 0.213406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.949465, "fair_value_reference": 42.803203, "structural_low": 46.57246, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.016411, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.000813, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.098373, "worst_return": -0.076777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.012901, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.011936, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.151104, "worst_return": -0.106367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015013, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.082249, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.197842, "worst_return": 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-0.087143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00903, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10363, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025382, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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"volume": 4329273, "typical_volume": 6256161.2, "trend": 50.524355, "fair_value": 42.580265, "relative_strength": 0.044962, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.438826, "energy": 47.4409, "activity_lines": [ 52.123537, 51.071793, 50.790152, 50.873491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.43, "volume": 4565351, "typical_volume": 6106068.0, "trend": 50.714823, "fair_value": 42.638209, "relative_strength": 0.713611, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.954227, "energy": 51.284509, "activity_lines": [ 52.409306, 51.485966, 50.914951, 50.996436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.05, "volume": 4637065, "typical_volume": 6035064.8, "trend": 50.880347, "fair_value": 42.702883, "relative_strength": 0.383336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.2036, "energy": 51.585872, "activity_lines": [ 52.418667, 51.750454, 51.008222, 51.082577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.33, "volume": 6738615, "typical_volume": 5973076.55, "trend": 50.925841, "fair_value": 42.75544, "relative_strength": -5.915875, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.039154, "energy": 9.212825, "activity_lines": [ 51.361333, 51.424581, 50.846135, 50.982554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.05, "volume": 5720680, "typical_volume": 5838379.5, "trend": 50.949465, "fair_value": 42.803203, "relative_strength": -9.595026, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.049532, "energy": 18.508907, "activity_lines": [ 50.424, 51.047135, 50.675109, 50.861532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }