{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c298c3d3-eb0e-4c47-b2e3-63f49f1d714f", "symbol": "GLUX", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Global Luxury UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.322, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.831, "architecture_energy": 17.272, "architecture_maturity": 12.73, "architecture_confidence": 54.646, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.68, "rotation_up": 30.69, "upward_expansion": 31.15, "deceleration": 63.49, "rotation_down": 30.41, "downward_expansion": 19.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 207.939337, 208.158731, 205.669906, 204.229506 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 211.740005, "trend_reference": 204.363667, "distance_from_trend": 0.036094, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 202.905265, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043541, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.622812, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002966, "excess_performance": -0.173858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036094, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010585, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043541, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067338, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023962, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002966, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.94167, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8908, "relative_activity": 1.024032, "balance": 2.94167, "dry_up": 1.808753, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030491, "annualized_volatility": 0.19777, "from_high_reference": -0.051472, "from_low_reference": 0.14895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 204.363667, "fair_value_reference": 202.905265, "structural_low": 184.289993, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.016686, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.007588, "regime_survival": 0.388889, "best_return": 0.14923, "worst_return": -0.109341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052193, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.032062, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117091, "worst_return": -0.07348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.052962, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.090039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090378, "worst_return": -0.146411, 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reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.175202, "energy": 23.353205, "activity_lines": [ 208.407338, 207.692003, 203.864763, 203.786194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 203.899994, "volume": 8786, "typical_volume": 8356.35, "trend": 205.078999, "fair_value": 202.945393, "relative_strength": -13.387012, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.023826, "energy": 10.579987, "activity_lines": [ 206.663335, 207.384547, 204.166762, 203.680946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 206.570007, "volume": 15531, "typical_volume": 8517.2, "trend": 204.728333, "fair_value": 202.898022, "relative_strength": -12.538206, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.634766, "energy": 7.719181, "activity_lines": [ 206.299337, 207.374912, 204.698668, 203.77714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 211.740005, "volume": 8908, "typical_volume": 8698.95, "trend": 204.363667, "fair_value": 202.905265, "relative_strength": -12.622812, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.831314, "energy": 17.27165, "activity_lines": [ 207.939337, 208.158731, 205.669906, 204.229506 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }