{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2aa5a63-3681-4c45-86fd-13255364a156", "symbol": "002395", "name": "Wuxi Double Elephant Micro Fibre Material Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.889, "architecture_energy": 56.282, "architecture_maturity": 55.821, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 25.93, "upward_expansion": 10.16, "deceleration": 56.98, "rotation_down": 51.07, "downward_expansion": 81.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.95, 12.147381, 13.826045, 15.071517 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.28, "trend_reference": 16.495921, "distance_from_trend": -0.255574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.632528, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214458, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.606821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.380736, "excess_performance": -0.388136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.255574, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082003, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214458, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.50234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.380736, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.441462, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12901127, "relative_activity": 0.454874, "balance": 0.441462, "dry_up": 0.557079, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136459, "annualized_volatility": 0.550878, "from_high_reference": -0.411509, "from_low_reference": 0.114338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.495921, "fair_value_reference": 15.632528, "structural_low": 11.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.01464, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.005246, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.603429, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.078049, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.032201, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.221414, "worst_return": -0.13857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014493, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.102817, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.306245, "worst_return": -0.221571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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11.890869, 12.450512, 14.520118, 15.668475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.91, "volume": 13544419, "typical_volume": 29230818.75, "trend": 16.644254, "fair_value": 15.626779, "relative_strength": -29.957038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.22537, "energy": 60.308575, "activity_lines": [ 11.865333, 12.228803, 14.139081, 15.353082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.28, "volume": 12901127, "typical_volume": 28361970.5, "trend": 16.495921, "fair_value": 15.632528, "relative_strength": -30.606821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.888558, "energy": 56.28242, "activity_lines": [ 11.95, 12.147381, 13.826045, 15.071517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }