{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2b8a561-b837-4c08-846f-4e545374d39c", "symbol": "TRAD", "name": "TradeDoubler AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.069, "architecture_energy": 31.177, "architecture_maturity": 56.117, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.57, "rotation_up": 17.93, "upward_expansion": 3.71, "deceleration": 46.2, "rotation_down": 50.12, "downward_expansion": 77.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.232, 6.287636, 6.338095, 6.423183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.12, "trend_reference": 6.626667, "distance_from_trend": -0.076459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.389631, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.82367, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.203125, "excess_performance": -0.264619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135514, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.460146, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138258, "relative_activity": 0.995355, "balance": 0.460146, "dry_up": 0.754691, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090749, "annualized_volatility": 0.271103, "from_high_reference": -0.262651, "from_low_reference": 0.146067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.626667, "fair_value_reference": 5.389631, "structural_low": 5.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.018927, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.002821, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.553672, "worst_return": -0.110169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.055973, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.061692, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.605263, "worst_return": -0.272034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013043, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040173, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.631579, "worst_return": -0.276271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017325, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022648, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.789474, "worst_return": -0.132505, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002392, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.159524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050847, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.218241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.377991, "energy": 20.768509, "activity_lines": [ 6.373333, 6.381091, 6.410762, 6.536731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.32, "volume": 8058, "typical_volume": 127936.6, "trend": 6.69, "fair_value": 5.363221, "relative_strength": -16.148234, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.087712, "energy": 21.510604, "activity_lines": [ 6.36, 6.369818, 6.397143, 6.512688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.38, "volume": 23254, "typical_volume": 125442.85, "trend": 6.689333, "fair_value": 5.373542, "relative_strength": -16.046755, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.32421, "energy": 18.99919, "activity_lines": [ 6.368, 6.372727, 6.391619, 6.492688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.16, "volume": 249746, "typical_volume": 137232.95, "trend": 6.668, "fair_value": 5.381811, "relative_strength": -19.377049, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.571742, "energy": 23.271947, "activity_lines": [ 6.301333, 6.332364, 6.366095, 6.458538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.12, "volume": 138258, "typical_volume": 138903.2, "trend": 6.626667, "fair_value": 5.389631, "relative_strength": -20.82367, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.069245, "energy": 31.177131, "activity_lines": [ 6.232, 6.287636, 6.338095, 6.423183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }