{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c2bdf1ee-d1f9-4809-8446-b486516285b2",
    "symbol": "GTES",
    "name": "Gates Industrial Corporation plc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 58.99,
    "architecture_energy": 35.321,
    "architecture_maturity": 22.099,
    "architecture_confidence": 60.806,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 37.16,
        "rotation_up": 44.58,
        "upward_expansion": 72.41,
        "deceleration": 67.93,
        "rotation_down": 21.66,
        "downward_expansion": 3.74
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        27.56,
        27.391636,
        26.690238,
        26.11529
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 28.25,
    "trend_reference": 25.512667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.107293,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 19.858141,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.42259,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.781046,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.053711,
    "excess_performance": -0.071914,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.107293,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.072096,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.42259,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027585,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.01781,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045281,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053711,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.529153,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 12922258,
      "relative_activity": 1.274069,
      "balance": 2.529153,
      "dry_up": 1.057002,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.07452,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.395836,
      "from_high_reference": -0.068886,
      "from_low_reference": 0.352969
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 25.512667,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.858141,
      "structural_low": 20.88,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.00725,
        "positive_rate": 0.466667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.466667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.021879,
        "regime_survival": 0.533333,
        "best_return": 0.286466,
        "worst_return": -0.148862,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.029518,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.045726,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.304511,
        "worst_return": -0.122638,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.02526,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.043045,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.310526,
        "worst_return": -0.164147,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.230998,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.021276,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.275018,
        "worst_return": -0.384444,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.108315,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.063549,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.072198,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.16398,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.135225,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.000409,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.148862,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-12-19",
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        "return": -0.00917,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.047792,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.175308,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.15608,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.060985,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2026-07-24",
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        "return": -0.04272,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": 0.00965,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "energy": 72.951303,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 19.405449,
        "relative_strength": -0.990162,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 10427592.1,
        "trend": 24.802667,
        "fair_value": 19.4875,
        "relative_strength": -3.361741,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 58.097367,
        "energy": 53.560142,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.21,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 26.61,
        "volume": 7077772,
        "typical_volume": 10233987.4,
        "trend": 24.969333,
        "fair_value": 19.572244,
        "relative_strength": -0.627469,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.92509,
        "energy": 33.38722,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.943333,
          26.838,
          26.01881,
          25.619376
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 26.89,
        "volume": 9815311,
        "typical_volume": 10195487.85,
        "trend": 25.133333,
        "fair_value": 19.657692,
        "relative_strength": 1.214659,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.964432,
        "energy": 20.341882,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.805333,
          26.925455,
          26.182381,
          25.74329
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 27.98,
        "volume": 13067297,
        "typical_volume": 10227400.4,
        "trend": 25.330667,
        "fair_value": 19.752821,
        "relative_strength": 4.294161,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.340688,
        "energy": 26.430824,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.110667,
          27.165818,
          26.435905,
          25.926946
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 28.25,
        "volume": 12922258,
        "typical_volume": 10142512.2,
        "trend": 25.512667,
        "fair_value": 19.858141,
        "relative_strength": 1.781046,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.990036,
        "energy": 35.321326,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.56,
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          26.690238,
          26.11529
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}