{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2c0687e-e53c-4790-8425-db1eb1e3621c", "symbol": "AMAT", "name": "Applied Materials, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.633, "architecture_energy": 28.416, "architecture_maturity": 74.61, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.78, "rotation_up": 23.79, "upward_expansion": 58.55, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 30.48, "downward_expansion": 22.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 9338.565365, 9732.007475, 9125.086958, 8466.710106 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9290.0, "trend_reference": 7613.97054, "distance_from_trend": 0.220126, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4235.139442, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.193552, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 50.675476, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.65917, "excess_performance": 0.713837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.220126, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.295428, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.193552, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147177, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.506755, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020704, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.65917, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.15215, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6636, "relative_activity": 1.948584, "balance": 3.15215, "dry_up": 2.155526, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102908, "annualized_volatility": 0.482511, "from_high_reference": -0.190495, "from_low_reference": 2.210899 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7613.97054, "fair_value_reference": 4235.139442, "structural_low": 5599.183594, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.046749, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.063418, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.155826, "worst_return": -0.072072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.068643, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.127498, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.402454, "worst_return": -0.023205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065108, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.16238, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.092482, "worst_return": -0.218099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072976, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117443, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054495, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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8092.396297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9601.160156, "volume": 12523, "typical_volume": 3067.2, "trend": 7340.022591, "fair_value": 4149.853624, "relative_strength": 62.212717, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.69627, "energy": 56.369221, "activity_lines": [ 9941.385417, 9901.081658, 8955.161956, 8249.052102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8905.0, "volume": 5107, "typical_volume": 3099.1, "trend": 7481.278353, "fair_value": 4190.759935, "relative_strength": 46.884353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.526725, "energy": 34.871381, "activity_lines": [ 9500.975391, 9794.58093, 9028.363607, 8350.018387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9290.0, "volume": 6636, "typical_volume": 3405.55, "trend": 7613.97054, "fair_value": 4235.139442, "relative_strength": 50.675476, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.632523, "energy": 28.416396, "activity_lines": [ 9338.565365, 9732.007475, 9125.086958, 8466.710106 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }