{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2c22b3a-3f08-4ca2-98fa-b2de6693d063", "symbol": "RVHL", "name": "Ravinder Heights Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 74.64, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.306, "architecture_energy": 19.235, "architecture_maturity": 32.177, "architecture_confidence": 77.302, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.56, "rotation_up": 30.35, "upward_expansion": 58.61, "deceleration": 86.37, "rotation_down": 22.59, "downward_expansion": 13.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.680666, 45.112545, 43.953524, 42.851032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 43.509998, "trend_reference": 42.384667, "distance_from_trend": 0.02655, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.525962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.103367, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.492959, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089749, "excess_performance": -0.04604, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02655, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06941, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.103367, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021212, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06493, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089749, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.135252, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58899, "relative_activity": 0.535555, "balance": 1.135252, "dry_up": 0.41443, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101975, "annualized_volatility": 0.510002, "from_high_reference": -0.390275, "from_low_reference": 0.526667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.384667, "fair_value_reference": 48.525962, "structural_low": 28.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010218, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003505, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.051273, "worst_return": -0.029297, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009591, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.046691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076613, "worst_return": -0.085938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.144531, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.147248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.387097, "worst_return": -0.409996, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.318359, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.206484, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318359, "worst_return": 0.318359, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.587428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188417, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121616, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.424387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00664, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056326, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104699, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067191, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033085, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076419, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053101, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.700001, "volume": 735293, "typical_volume": 259936.1, "trend": 23.711667, "fair_value": 23.283929, "relative_strength": 4.874613, "stage": 3, "regime": 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46.74818, "activity_lines": [ 45.902, 44.194909, 42.276953, 42.294043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 45.029999, "volume": 193939, "typical_volume": 132172.8, "trend": 43.483334, "fair_value": 47.994487, "relative_strength": -1.3711, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.330071, "energy": 37.919939, "activity_lines": [ 45.714666, 44.557818, 42.676, 42.371355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.150002, "volume": 70017, "typical_volume": 123426.85, "trend": 43.111334, "fair_value": 48.124615, "relative_strength": -1.672436, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.800233, "energy": 21.321768, "activity_lines": [ 45.250667, 44.886546, 43.061858, 42.478882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.869999, "volume": 27171, "typical_volume": 119538.15, "trend": 42.815667, "fair_value": 48.270898, "relative_strength": 2.173085, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.919799, "energy": 20.538356, "activity_lines": [ 45.375333, 45.272182, 43.498953, 42.65686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.93, "volume": 26225, "typical_volume": 116467.55, "trend": 42.614667, "fair_value": 48.407628, "relative_strength": -2.581845, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.642487, "energy": 23.983124, "activity_lines": [ 45.230667, 45.373091, 43.813762, 42.793269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.509998, "volume": 58899, "typical_volume": 109977.6, "trend": 42.384667, "fair_value": 48.525962, "relative_strength": -6.492959, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.306248, "energy": 19.234958, "activity_lines": [ 44.680666, 45.112545, 43.953524, 42.851032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }