{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2cc6af8-4573-4fb4-9f1f-c11b13945e3a", "symbol": "PATK", "name": "Patrick Industries Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.611, "architecture_energy": 42.486, "architecture_maturity": 54.322, "architecture_confidence": 95.479, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.39, "rotation_up": 27.58, "upward_expansion": 6.57, "deceleration": 53.3, "rotation_down": 46.01, "downward_expansion": 79.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.785333, 86.314182, 88.772709, 94.587683 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 88.84, "trend_reference": 103.935761, "distance_from_trend": -0.145241, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 85.325728, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.735308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363755, "excess_performance": -0.551209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145241, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064609, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009941, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2532750, "relative_activity": 0.873099, "balance": 0.60529, "dry_up": 0.995386, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082295, "annualized_volatility": 0.414777, "from_high_reference": -0.396531, "from_low_reference": 0.092877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.935761, "fair_value_reference": 85.325728, "structural_low": 81.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.02525, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": 0.015848, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.261948, "worst_return": -0.101053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.0255, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.041709, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.484305, "worst_return": -0.245036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.120596, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.082056, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.331756, "worst_return": -0.056585, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 86.736667, 87.668242, 92.739942, 99.803938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 88.09, "volume": 3435759, "typical_volume": 2719526.0, "trend": 106.694938, "fair_value": 84.707886, "relative_strength": -25.780225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.908694, "energy": 42.8501, "activity_lines": [ 86.958, 87.528319, 91.712126, 98.557054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 84.5, "volume": 2568982, "typical_volume": 2764121.1, "trend": 105.808909, "fair_value": 84.902784, "relative_strength": -27.233457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.271291, "energy": 51.349257, "activity_lines": [ 85.89, 86.855631, 90.509419, 97.125123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.55, "volume": 3012475, "typical_volume": 2850762.1, "trend": 104.911412, "fair_value": 85.087486, "relative_strength": -28.859811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.434552, "energy": 59.178534, "activity_lines": [ 84.363333, 85.941636, 89.267299, 95.624548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.84, "volume": 2532750, "typical_volume": 2900874.75, "trend": 103.935761, "fair_value": 85.325728, "relative_strength": -26.735308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.611049, "energy": 42.485813, "activity_lines": [ 85.785333, 86.314182, 88.772709, 94.587683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }