{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2d30adc-cd02-440d-9d71-d19c83eb2e04", "symbol": "BWMN", "name": "Bowman Consulting Group Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.248, "architecture_energy": 67.0, "architecture_maturity": 19.594, "architecture_confidence": 86.815, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.72, "rotation_up": 10.98, "upward_expansion": 14.38, "deceleration": 38.72, "rotation_down": 69.59, "downward_expansion": 87.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.663667, 27.536455, 29.176881, 29.775108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.23, "trend_reference": 30.940333, "distance_from_trend": -0.119919, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.286635, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100924, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.737938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.229267, "excess_performance": -0.416721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119919, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058314, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100924, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242984, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154093, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.229267, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.640112, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 696419, "relative_activity": 1.095194, "balance": 0.640112, "dry_up": 1.224669, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09195, "annualized_volatility": 0.353768, "from_high_reference": -0.405848, "from_low_reference": 0.086159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.940333, "fair_value_reference": 30.286635, "structural_low": 25.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.00609, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.027697, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.269231, "worst_return": -0.170024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050776, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.067822, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.187634, "worst_return": -0.077014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.12037, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.053448, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.749678, "worst_return": -0.000839, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 29.881667, 30.728182, 30.947524, 31.408989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.92, "volume": 444752, "typical_volume": 698849.2, "trend": 31.988833, "fair_value": 30.462244, "relative_strength": -31.516119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.181827, "energy": 63.838321, "activity_lines": [ 29.035333, 30.091, 30.662167, 31.128656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.31, "volume": 801860, "typical_volume": 714654.0, "trend": 31.7155, "fair_value": 30.420449, "relative_strength": -34.779436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.88783, "energy": 76.755908, "activity_lines": [ 27.620333, 29.067273, 30.154429, 30.697763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.955, "volume": 831916, "typical_volume": 711800.9, "trend": 31.427333, "fair_value": 30.370032, "relative_strength": -31.41568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.611976, "energy": 76.088199, "activity_lines": [ 26.804333, 28.332818, 29.74731, 30.326118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.85, "volume": 784806, "typical_volume": 698064.85, "trend": 31.193333, "fair_value": 30.318429, "relative_strength": -28.899842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.46658, "energy": 70.441815, "activity_lines": [ 26.568333, 27.855727, 29.441214, 30.030806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.23, "volume": 696419, "typical_volume": 635886.45, "trend": 30.940333, "fair_value": 30.286635, "relative_strength": -30.737938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.248408, "energy": 66.999508, "activity_lines": [ 26.663667, 27.536455, 29.176881, 29.775108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }