{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2d492d3-7aae-4653-8e3b-fee1b7dc5265", "symbol": "002541", "name": "Anhui Honglu Steel Construction (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 80.768, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.775, "architecture_energy": 16.8, "architecture_maturity": 24.965, "architecture_confidence": 64.264, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.9, "rotation_up": 43.56, "upward_expansion": 41.44, "deceleration": 39.87, "rotation_down": 20.05, "downward_expansion": 38.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.664667, 19.058171, 18.853038, 19.383971 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.700001, "trend_reference": 20.095829, "distance_from_trend": -0.069459, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.576985, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.108236, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.173298, "excess_performance": -0.180698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028621, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080229, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173298, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727777, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69137155, "relative_activity": 1.614479, "balance": 0.727777, "dry_up": 1.548306, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11227, "annualized_volatility": 0.375992, "from_high_reference": -0.259406, "from_low_reference": 0.218241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.095829, "fair_value_reference": 18.576985, "structural_low": 15.969082, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.080206, "positive_rate": 0.117647, "directional_follow_through": 0.117647, "median_excess_return": -0.076503, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.100113, "worst_return": -0.199656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.044663, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.015909, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.436331, "worst_return": -0.325669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.099618, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.085642, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.093857, "worst_return": -0.415101, 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03183, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083287, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040116, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.940995, "energy": 17.07803, "activity_lines": [ 18.980324, 18.332981, 18.778155, 19.433809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.790001, "volume": 74117280, "typical_volume": 40639361.7, "trend": 19.876495, "fair_value": 18.696701, "relative_strength": 3.579017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.802821, "energy": 21.604007, "activity_lines": [ 19.493286, 18.635438, 18.801608, 19.434745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.41, "volume": 46092973, "typical_volume": 41357378.5, "trend": 20.020495, "fair_value": 18.644067, "relative_strength": 8.642297, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.450627, "energy": 20.451591, "activity_lines": [ 19.983127, 19.025532, 18.903204, 19.469165 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.700001, "volume": 69137155, "typical_volume": 42823208.4, "trend": 20.095829, "fair_value": 18.576985, "relative_strength": -5.108236, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.774534, "energy": 16.799621, "activity_lines": [ 19.664667, 19.058171, 18.853038, 19.383971 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }