{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2d56072-7267-4f93-afb8-160b38ff21cc", "symbol": "EMM", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS EMERGING MARKETS EX-CHINA ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.468, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.26, "architecture_energy": 17.437, "architecture_maturity": 63.604, "architecture_confidence": 83.429, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.07, "rotation_up": 20.04, "upward_expansion": 47.55, "deceleration": 84.9, "rotation_down": 41.14, "downward_expansion": 30.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.804733, 42.56525, 42.667673, 41.622211 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.7887, "trend_reference": 40.223924, "distance_from_trend": 0.063762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.955767, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.428396, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.193003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.135883, "excess_performance": 0.010258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089473, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.428396, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04193, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144161, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135883, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675778, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17336, "relative_activity": 0.374511, "balance": 0.675778, "dry_up": 0.681296, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060161, "annualized_volatility": 0.313858, "from_high_reference": -0.097425, "from_low_reference": 0.456032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.223924, "fair_value_reference": 29.955767, "structural_low": 33.96, "invalidation": "A 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022767, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025283, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.222674, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", 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42.518517, 41.252402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.0786, "volume": 39352, "typical_volume": 58319.35, "trend": 39.760448, "fair_value": 29.743776, "relative_strength": 5.227992, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.433542, "energy": 20.67383, "activity_lines": [ 42.085211, 43.071723, 42.537255, 41.353632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.1066, "volume": 22663, "typical_volume": 54736.05, "trend": 39.971881, "fair_value": 29.842847, "relative_strength": 3.897487, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.245489, "energy": 19.090659, "activity_lines": [ 41.5593, 42.650806, 42.535427, 41.440481 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.7887, "volume": 17336, "typical_volume": 46289.75, "trend": 40.223924, "fair_value": 29.955767, "relative_strength": 4.193003, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.260467, "energy": 17.437475, "activity_lines": [ 41.804733, 42.56525, 42.667673, 41.622211 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }