{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c2d67ce4-538c-4a4c-9b5f-28286432162a",
    "symbol": "EUNI",
    "name": "iShares MSCI EM Small Cap UCITS ETF USD (Dist)",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 56.46,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -18.469,
    "architecture_energy": 30.712,
    "architecture_maturity": 88.338,
    "architecture_confidence": 51.259,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 50.51,
        "rotation_up": 16.93,
        "upward_expansion": 18.63,
        "deceleration": 62.03,
        "rotation_down": 61.84,
        "downward_expansion": 41.3
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        94.67,
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        97.956524,
        97.094667
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 97.150002,
    "trend_reference": 95.659667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.01558,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 82.95226,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171156,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.088203,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.064191,
    "excess_performance": -0.000449,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.01558,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036984,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.171156,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.093427,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020882,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.172249,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.064191,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.013966,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9936,
      "relative_activity": 1.246949,
      "balance": 1.013966,
      "dry_up": 1.029429,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.042907,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.215821,
      "from_high_reference": -0.066942,
      "from_low_reference": 0.181155
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 95.659667,
      "fair_value_reference": 82.95226,
      "structural_low": 87.0,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": 0.000701,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00036,
        "regime_survival": 0.842105,
        "best_return": 0.111545,
        "worst_return": -0.063627,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.009056,
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        "worst_return": -0.12482,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002546,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
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        "worst_return": -0.102032,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.082185,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "relative_strength": 11.219467,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": 4.909613,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 9095.65,
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        "fair_value": 82.351954,
        "relative_strength": 6.252217,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 94.580002,
        "volume": 8827,
        "typical_volume": 8720.0,
        "trend": 95.013001,
        "fair_value": 82.511232,
        "relative_strength": 1.351455,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 13.492913,
        "energy": 13.782841,
        "activity_lines": [
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          97.335442
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 93.970001,
        "volume": 5891,
        "typical_volume": 8296.85,
        "trend": 95.264334,
        "fair_value": 82.664129,
        "relative_strength": -0.522318,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -5.716127,
        "energy": 17.173083,
        "activity_lines": [
          96.624002,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 90.839996,
        "volume": 8157,
        "typical_volume": 8205.7,
        "trend": 95.414667,
        "fair_value": 82.784417,
        "relative_strength": -5.897105,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -38.215956,
        "energy": 39.639628,
        "activity_lines": [
          94.312,
          96.775273,
          97.973143,
          96.98271
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 97.150002,
        "volume": 9936,
        "typical_volume": 7968.25,
        "trend": 95.659667,
        "fair_value": 82.95226,
        "relative_strength": -2.088203,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -18.469336,
        "energy": 30.712452,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}