{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2d904a9-537b-43d8-87c3-be1b4e445ffa", "symbol": "300190", "name": "WELLE Environmental Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.213, "architecture_energy": 63.3, "architecture_maturity": 23.054, "architecture_confidence": 86.171, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.43, "rotation_up": 11.75, "upward_expansion": 13.2, "deceleration": 38.87, "rotation_down": 67.4, "downward_expansion": 86.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.694, 3.811636, 3.970952, 4.074925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.63, "trend_reference": 4.212, "distance_from_trend": -0.138177, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.760558, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034718, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.129498, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.187919, "excess_performance": -0.195319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138177, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03483, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034718, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167262, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171295, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.915514, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58641303, "relative_activity": 0.588409, "balance": 0.915514, "dry_up": 0.608787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099597, "annualized_volatility": 0.344552, "from_high_reference": -0.299228, "from_low_reference": 0.093373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.212, "fair_value_reference": 3.760558, "structural_low": 3.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.012343, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.441176, "median_excess_return": 0.029714, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.265018, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.024961, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.001479, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.423611, "worst_return": -0.203448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009592, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.080605, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.218069, "worst_return": -0.141476, "sufficient": true }, { 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4.02, "volume": 103299696, "typical_volume": 124879753.0, "trend": 4.306667, "fair_value": 3.768919, "relative_strength": -14.362135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.644803, "energy": 42.630743, "activity_lines": [ 4.01, 4.076545, 4.147095, 4.222495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.93, "volume": 66214441, "typical_volume": 122038443.25, "trend": 4.287, "fair_value": 3.768622, "relative_strength": -7.775444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.266314, "energy": 43.058399, "activity_lines": [ 3.979333, 4.034182, 4.118762, 4.198194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.58, "volume": 69448454, "typical_volume": 118594691.1, "trend": 4.259667, "fair_value": 3.766019, "relative_strength": -15.991175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.639183, "energy": 50.871923, "activity_lines": [ 3.838667, 3.934182, 4.061048, 4.152581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.66, "volume": 48384335, "typical_volume": 114046362.4, "trend": 4.234, "fair_value": 3.763544, "relative_strength": -12.486195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.479714, "energy": 57.433425, "activity_lines": [ 3.764667, 3.867636, 4.015238, 4.113892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.63, "volume": 58641303, "typical_volume": 99660727.6, "trend": 4.212, "fair_value": 3.760558, "relative_strength": -17.129498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.212575, "energy": 63.30035, "activity_lines": [ 3.694, 3.811636, 3.970952, 4.074925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }