{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2db892b-e902-455d-89b0-050b609eed9f", "symbol": "THCH", "name": "TH International Limited", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.626, "architecture_energy": 26.696, "architecture_maturity": 29.141, "architecture_confidence": 89.153, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.66, "rotation_up": 21.5, "upward_expansion": 2.5, "deceleration": 52.03, "rotation_down": 39.95, "downward_expansion": 71.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.728, 1.734005, 1.81022, 1.868941 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.77, "trend_reference": 1.936077, "distance_from_trend": -0.08578, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.150178, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.573512, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.64442, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011173, "excess_performance": -0.198627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08578, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.573512, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058146, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058727, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011173, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29511, "relative_activity": 0.982488, "balance": 0.48724, "dry_up": 1.101858, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173616, "annualized_volatility": 0.492939, "from_high_reference": -0.455385, "from_low_reference": 0.427419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.936077, "fair_value_reference": 4.150178, "structural_low": 1.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.014612, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.034992, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.174438, "worst_return": -0.331786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.097346, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.133377, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.137495, "worst_return": -0.348796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.22963, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.29572, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003861, "worst_return": -0.3525, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1.766367, 1.866382, 1.948708, 1.995148 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.6, "volume": 72328, "typical_volume": 28228.0, "trend": 2.056077, "fair_value": 4.619537, "relative_strength": -40.31871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.5633, "energy": 64.633222, "activity_lines": [ 1.688693, 1.804471, 1.913163, 1.963465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.89, "volume": 36510, "typical_volume": 29793.45, "trend": 2.029743, "fair_value": 4.544153, "relative_strength": -29.120842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.338066, "energy": 49.445553, "activity_lines": [ 1.733353, 1.804378, 1.906143, 1.952751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.8, "volume": 17222, "typical_volume": 28736.6, "trend": 2.014743, "fair_value": 4.456332, "relative_strength": -32.663074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.088831, "energy": 35.405352, "activity_lines": [ 1.755347, 1.792104, 1.890551, 1.937928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.78, "volume": 8967, "typical_volume": 26350.2, "trend": 2.002743, "fair_value": 4.384409, "relative_strength": -29.562178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.010832, "energy": 26.740669, "activity_lines": [ 1.772673, 1.781647, 1.872888, 1.922784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.65, "volume": 57414, "typical_volume": 28590.55, "trend": 1.984743, "fair_value": 4.301396, "relative_strength": -32.649915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.265994, "energy": 26.916922, "activity_lines": [ 1.743333, 1.749918, 1.844566, 1.900026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.69, "volume": 36494, "typical_volume": 30229.25, "trend": 1.957077, "fair_value": 4.222806, "relative_strength": -30.340321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.331907, "energy": 28.629135, "activity_lines": [ 1.725333, 1.732007, 1.822388, 1.88101 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.77, "volume": 29511, "typical_volume": 30037.0, "trend": 1.936077, "fair_value": 4.150178, "relative_strength": -29.64442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.625563, "energy": 26.695948, "activity_lines": [ 1.728, 1.734005, 1.81022, 1.868941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }