{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2e0c42c-301f-473f-a18b-6b37cacb65ba", "symbol": "XME", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P METALS & MINING ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.053, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.268, "architecture_energy": 31.807, "architecture_maturity": 14.009, "architecture_confidence": 86.877, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.64, "rotation_up": 19.15, "upward_expansion": 5.69, "deceleration": 50.7, "rotation_down": 56.01, "downward_expansion": 79.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.794, 106.463563, 110.75677, 111.858089 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 115.74, "trend_reference": 114.109765, "distance_from_trend": 0.014287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 74.775419, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.547835, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.637799, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054609, "excess_performance": -0.180234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014287, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023947, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.547835, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189405, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162677, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054609, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14090141, "relative_activity": 1.329449, "balance": 0.687273, "dry_up": 1.017818, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085135, "annualized_volatility": 0.347923, "from_high_reference": -0.146422, "from_low_reference": 0.518251 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 114.109765, "fair_value_reference": 74.775419, "structural_low": 96.37, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.065711, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.030774, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.186469, "worst_return": -0.197557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.129664, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.084594, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.186061, "worst_return": 0.009464, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.197286, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.20393, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.502294, "worst_return": 0.176841, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 10744699.35, "trend": 114.37322, "fair_value": 74.035218, "relative_strength": -9.970647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.98291, "energy": 71.7037, "activity_lines": [ 102.096, 107.362643, 111.498201, 112.640623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.65, "volume": 10436644, "typical_volume": 10544372.35, "trend": 114.146064, "fair_value": 74.354652, "relative_strength": -12.092382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.491193, "energy": 69.671082, "activity_lines": [ 101.184667, 105.392752, 110.389119, 111.755254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 115.74, "volume": 14090141, "typical_volume": 10598483.6, "trend": 114.109765, "fair_value": 74.775419, "relative_strength": -2.637799, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.268357, "energy": 31.807424, "activity_lines": [ 105.794, 106.463563, 110.75677, 111.858089 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }