{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2e2be55-b1f2-4ef5-88ac-d5a43d55529e", "symbol": "SAPE", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Apple ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.305, "architecture_energy": 74.295, "architecture_maturity": 35.363, "architecture_confidence": 94.34, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.85, "rotation_up": 15.14, "upward_expansion": 16.84, "deceleration": 39.16, "rotation_down": 68.03, "downward_expansion": 90.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.8416, 2.904555, 2.974912, 3.086725 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.8475, "trend_reference": 3.224917, "distance_from_trend": -0.117031, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.585276, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.378991, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.736389, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.116643, "excess_performance": -0.167879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117031, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041487, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.378991, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021331, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.136364, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.009867, "balance": 0.136364, "dry_up": 0.017267, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048518, "annualized_volatility": 0.310907, "from_high_reference": -0.30743, "from_low_reference": 0.062698 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.224917, "fair_value_reference": 4.585276, "structural_low": 2.6795, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.00765, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.01259, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.140574, "worst_return": -0.104538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.016018, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.020972, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.163988, "worst_return": -0.179058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.065657, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.138481, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.274783, "worst_return": -0.243729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.125515, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.146593, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.134188, "worst_return": -0.383856, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095405, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016469, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033373, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.189767, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026695, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052011, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.172003, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087793, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003278, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055449, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072168, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047818, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.065, "volume": 480, "typical_volume": 715.85, "trend": 6.211242, "fair_value": 7.955832, "relative_strength": -9.78136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.393665, "energy": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.155069, "energy": 28.180071, "activity_lines": [ 3.111233, 3.056864, 3.177826, 3.254333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.977, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 111.75, "trend": 3.3154, "fair_value": 4.671023, "relative_strength": -22.359754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.293675, "energy": 31.461056, "activity_lines": [ 3.087767, 3.040755, 3.148693, 3.231848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 111.75, "trend": 3.303033, "fair_value": 4.65535, "relative_strength": -22.16667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.660074, "energy": 39.767113, "activity_lines": [ 3.032667, 3.016918, 3.114452, 3.205048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.7135, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 101.8, "trend": 3.281667, "fair_value": 4.638658, "relative_strength": -26.955275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.31057, "energy": 63.574698, "activity_lines": [ 2.915567, 2.963709, 3.065007, 3.167014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.7445, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 102.05, "trend": 3.262383, "fair_value": 4.622342, "relative_strength": -26.182483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.218721, "energy": 88.83072, "activity_lines": [ 2.833933, 2.9222, 3.021438, 3.132358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.9565, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 101.3, "trend": 3.248933, "fair_value": 4.604667, "relative_strength": -20.400927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.359296, "energy": 77.65897, "activity_lines": [ 2.8452, 2.923709, 3.001688, 3.112624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8475, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 101.35, "trend": 3.224917, "fair_value": 4.585276, "relative_strength": -22.736389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.305246, "energy": 74.29508, "activity_lines": [ 2.8416, 2.904555, 2.974912, 3.086725 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }