{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2e4aa07-d365-44ed-9cb4-be90e390bfb3", "symbol": "LBTYK", "name": "Liberty Global PLC Class C", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.349, "architecture_energy": 63.112, "architecture_maturity": 13.502, "architecture_confidence": 89.084, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.19, "rotation_up": 12.35, "upward_expansion": 13.33, "deceleration": 39.67, "rotation_down": 66.79, "downward_expansion": 86.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.126, 10.375091, 10.879048, 11.123462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.24, "trend_reference": 11.299667, "distance_from_trend": -0.093779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.732905, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045925, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.104541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120275, "excess_performance": -0.307729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045925, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158032, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093306, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.665014, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9031379, "relative_activity": 1.380199, "balance": 0.665014, "dry_up": 1.131414, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079979, "annualized_volatility": 0.36415, "from_high_reference": -0.219512, "from_low_reference": 0.101668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.299667, "fair_value_reference": 10.732905, "structural_low": 9.295, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.003988, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.025835, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.259833, "worst_return": -0.132492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.036675, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003946, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.168769, "worst_return": -0.169572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006178, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.080755, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.571592, "worst_return": -0.14274, 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"close": 9.6, "volume": 7284537, "typical_volume": 6156003.15, "trend": 11.323, "fair_value": 10.732181, "relative_strength": -22.655254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.182, "energy": 79.543539, "activity_lines": [ 10.126667, 10.598909, 11.072238, 11.254473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.36, "volume": 9497607, "typical_volume": 6404239.05, "trend": 11.307667, "fair_value": 10.733548, "relative_strength": -16.59895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.638182, "energy": 70.932352, "activity_lines": [ 10.127333, 10.484909, 10.977667, 11.192344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.24, "volume": 9031379, "typical_volume": 6543533.55, "trend": 11.299667, "fair_value": 10.732905, "relative_strength": -21.104541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.348809, "energy": 63.111869, "activity_lines": [ 10.126, 10.375091, 10.879048, 11.123462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }