{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2e9a469-eda0-455a-af80-7f158293eedc", "symbol": "DTEC", "name": "ALPS ETF TRUST DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.953, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.21, "architecture_energy": 64.857, "architecture_maturity": 15.035, "architecture_confidence": 70.15, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.13, "rotation_up": 68.23, "upward_expansion": 88.47, "deceleration": 43.8, "rotation_down": 14.79, "downward_expansion": 12.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.916667, 49.117011, 48.371153, 47.56065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 52.2388, "trend_reference": 46.937527, "distance_from_trend": 0.112943, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.399137, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176572, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.655813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.139023, "excess_performance": 0.013398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112943, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003834, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176572, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089614, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036558, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09195, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139023, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.463581, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29987, "relative_activity": 0.972754, "balance": 0.463581, "dry_up": 0.591902, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045132, "annualized_volatility": 0.216184, "from_high_reference": -0.01344, "from_low_reference": 0.244077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.937527, "fair_value_reference": 44.399137, "structural_low": 41.99, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.000923, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.009568, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.072226, "worst_return": -0.13189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.009445, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.025655, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.068311, "worst_return": -0.192952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032943, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.083678, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.135614, "worst_return": -0.064908, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 48.47472, 48.308185, 47.469102, 46.990677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.4299, "volume": 11431, "typical_volume": 32098.35, "trend": 46.829287, "fair_value": 44.230298, "relative_strength": -8.979718, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.481525, "energy": 35.213678, "activity_lines": [ 48.236853, 48.159207, 47.557067, 47.025311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.7618, "volume": 10138, "typical_volume": 31674.55, "trend": 46.873567, "fair_value": 44.304371, "relative_strength": -5.239054, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.790906, "energy": 41.980607, "activity_lines": [ 48.752987, 48.422307, 47.859138, 47.214506 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.2388, "volume": 29987, "typical_volume": 30826.9, "trend": 46.937527, "fair_value": 44.399137, "relative_strength": -3.655813, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.209659, "energy": 64.857137, "activity_lines": [ 49.916667, 49.117011, 48.371153, 47.56065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }