{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2e9d78b-8e38-4a24-97ae-4b92f9b32363", "symbol": "NIO", "name": "Nio Inc Class A ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.847, "architecture_energy": 41.285, "architecture_maturity": 12.065, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.83, "rotation_up": 20.35, "upward_expansion": 5.92, "deceleration": 47.88, "rotation_down": 52.94, "downward_expansion": 79.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.748667, 4.805636, 5.134286, 5.267075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.74, "trend_reference": 5.295667, "distance_from_trend": -0.104929, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.518397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.141055, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.223022, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059524, "excess_performance": -0.185149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104929, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030689, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.141055, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227643, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059524, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.460038, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122081364, "relative_activity": 0.769141, "balance": 0.460038, "dry_up": 0.735346, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114979, "annualized_volatility": 0.54413, "from_high_reference": -0.408978, "from_low_reference": 0.084668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.295667, "fair_value_reference": 5.518397, "structural_low": 4.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.005366, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02369, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.613861, "worst_return": -0.333195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.028175, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042118, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.402439, "worst_return": -0.317406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.0863, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.144896, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.146853, "worst_return": -0.441809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 4.49, "volume": 113243451, "typical_volume": 176580349.4, "trend": 5.301, "fair_value": 5.633782, "relative_strength": -26.422394, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.391258, "energy": 51.987859, "activity_lines": [ 4.716667, 4.875818, 5.265714, 5.329871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.88, "volume": 117400672, "typical_volume": 163155026.5, "trend": 5.292333, "fair_value": 5.570705, "relative_strength": -20.599991, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.349256, "energy": 37.042505, "activity_lines": [ 4.756667, 4.850545, 5.204333, 5.30271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.74, "volume": 122081364, "typical_volume": 158724252.75, "trend": 5.295667, "fair_value": 5.518397, "relative_strength": -25.223022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.847208, "energy": 41.285072, "activity_lines": [ 4.748667, 4.805636, 5.134286, 5.267075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }