{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2ed2611-298c-4b8a-88c3-dd611e4212e7", "symbol": "PRAA", "name": "PRA Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.897, "architecture_energy": 30.708, "architecture_maturity": 26.45, "architecture_confidence": 70.593, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.11, "rotation_up": 52.95, "upward_expansion": 72.96, "deceleration": 59.63, "rotation_down": 17.23, "downward_expansion": 4.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.273333, 17.948727, 17.649238, 17.439075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.79, "trend_reference": 16.786, "distance_from_trend": 0.178959, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.24625, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028252, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.917494, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.728384, "excess_performance": 0.540931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.178959, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0156, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052996, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049175, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053626, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.728384, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.614581, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2636377, "relative_activity": 1.014364, "balance": 0.614581, "dry_up": 0.731871, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117341, "annualized_volatility": 0.83653, "from_high_reference": -0.122395, "from_low_reference": 0.930732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.786, "fair_value_reference": 19.24625, "structural_low": 10.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.044812, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.043016, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.181122, "worst_return": -0.216346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.064766, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.153345, "worst_return": -0.345585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.327802, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.415397, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.070913, "worst_return": -0.378316, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.405892, "energy": 19.503508, "activity_lines": [ 17.288667, 16.718364, 17.397571, 16.972602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.49, "volume": 1625056, "typical_volume": 2956384.1, "trend": 16.697, "fair_value": 19.352981, "relative_strength": -2.774604, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.555822, "energy": 27.378859, "activity_lines": [ 17.862, 16.983455, 17.51481, 17.090667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.12, "volume": 1334788, "typical_volume": 2770780.7, "trend": 16.736333, "fair_value": 19.319327, "relative_strength": -0.45307, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.016378, "energy": 31.499794, "activity_lines": [ 18.146667, 17.249273, 17.560095, 17.182473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.98, "volume": 2061930, "typical_volume": 2655056.45, "trend": 16.715, "fair_value": 19.27766, "relative_strength": -4.986624, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.091538, "energy": 22.118648, "activity_lines": [ 17.889333, 17.327091, 17.485524, 17.198194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.37, "volume": 1575562, "typical_volume": 2595031.2, "trend": 16.711333, "fair_value": 19.249263, "relative_strength": -3.189924, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.224388, "energy": 17.492322, "activity_lines": [ 17.626, 17.442727, 17.453667, 17.240452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.79, "volume": 2636377, "typical_volume": 2599043.9, "trend": 16.786, "fair_value": 19.24625, "relative_strength": 4.917494, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.897053, "energy": 30.708288, "activity_lines": [ 18.273333, 17.948727, 17.649238, 17.439075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }