{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2f812d0-c3b4-451d-8fb0-075e1c9a1e66", "symbol": "CHLL", "name": "Chill Brands Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.408, "architecture_energy": 69.102, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.67, "rotation_up": 26.79, "upward_expansion": 15.29, "deceleration": 41.25, "rotation_down": 59.98, "downward_expansion": 93.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0214, 0.022696, 0.028089, 0.033704 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.021, "trend_reference": 0.04202, "distance_from_trend": -0.500238, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.21026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.900124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -75.863705, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.533333, "excess_performance": -0.584569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.500238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.335056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.900124, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037244, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.758637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032341, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.533333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.502981, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31930, "relative_activity": 0.110072, "balance": 0.502981, "dry_up": 0.805925, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.321538, "annualized_volatility": 0.654076, "from_high_reference": -0.93, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.04202, "fair_value_reference": 0.21026, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.137241, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.144192, "regime_survival": 0.952381, "best_return": 0.841463, "worst_return": -0.473039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.382353, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.4458, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.95, "worst_return": -0.743243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.616, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.661281, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 2.333333, "worst_return": -0.888108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.688, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.908186, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.140097, "worst_return": -0.958182, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2022-09-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.938384, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-09-09", "end": "2022-12-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.254545, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-23", "end": "2023-02-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-02-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.77907, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.280769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084906, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.021667, 0.023538, 0.029456, 0.035181 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.021, "volume": 31930, "typical_volume": 290081.65, "trend": 0.04202, "fair_value": 0.21026, "relative_strength": -75.863705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.407585, "energy": 69.101683, "activity_lines": [ 0.0214, 0.022696, 0.028089, 0.033704 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }