{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2fc7bc8-680d-4ad5-9548-af765bb249f5", "symbol": "300533", "name": "Shenzhen Bingchuan Network Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.19, "architecture_energy": 54.468, "architecture_maturity": 59.694, "architecture_confidence": 91.196, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.64, "rotation_up": 18.43, "upward_expansion": 9.48, "deceleration": 44.49, "rotation_down": 54.71, "downward_expansion": 78.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.609333, 14.946364, 15.884681, 17.03263 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.24, "trend_reference": 18.959391, "distance_from_trend": -0.196177, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.428197, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.125555, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.104003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.355792, "excess_performance": -0.363192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196177, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130918, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.125555, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32104, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.355792, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.165623, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55802059, "relative_activity": 1.188692, "balance": 1.165623, "dry_up": 1.204238, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133473, "annualized_volatility": 0.6876, "from_high_reference": -0.497692, "from_low_reference": 0.181395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.959391, "fair_value_reference": 17.428197, "structural_low": 12.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.035464, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.022747, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.288711, "worst_return": -0.304363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.036491, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.010094, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.567165, "worst_return": -0.312179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06427, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026424, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.637431, "worst_return": -0.299447, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.22282, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.354178, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.403789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -56.148472, "energy": 40.598229, "activity_lines": [ 16.174667, 16.202135, 17.186247, 18.457672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.91, "volume": 70947127, "typical_volume": 46235833.75, "trend": 19.860526, "fair_value": 17.630526, "relative_strength": -37.814791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.867554, "energy": 44.62441, "activity_lines": [ 15.582, 15.70115, 16.775353, 18.05442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.94, "volume": 39118745, "typical_volume": 45930051.95, "trend": 19.522687, "fair_value": 17.543011, "relative_strength": -41.569784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.761999, "energy": 54.515549, "activity_lines": [ 14.726667, 15.125251, 16.316011, 17.607935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.6, "volume": 60259494, "typical_volume": 46401356.65, "trend": 19.234544, "fair_value": 17.46806, "relative_strength": -32.301941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.370402, "energy": 46.458831, "activity_lines": [ 14.519333, 14.944182, 16.053331, 17.290342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.24, "volume": 55802059, "typical_volume": 46944078.1, "trend": 18.959391, "fair_value": 17.428197, "relative_strength": -32.104003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.189533, "energy": 54.468036, "activity_lines": [ 14.609333, 14.946364, 15.884681, 17.03263 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }