{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2fdd731-c8fc-46ae-b0c7-ef0abe697534", "symbol": "C3RY", "name": "Cherry SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.487, "architecture_energy": 51.173, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.311, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.81, "rotation_up": 23.87, "upward_expansion": 8.44, "deceleration": 57.27, "rotation_down": 51.39, "downward_expansion": 79.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.207667, 1.251, 1.453348, 1.595422 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.235, "trend_reference": 1.792133, "distance_from_trend": -0.310877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.939487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.79207, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.414667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.444694, "excess_performance": -0.509334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.310877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165389, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.79207, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.464147, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138278, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.444694, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.528606, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4022, "relative_activity": 0.163153, "balance": 0.528606, "dry_up": 0.89952, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.202865, "annualized_volatility": 0.576232, "from_high_reference": -0.63244, "from_low_reference": 0.222772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.792133, "fair_value_reference": 5.939487, "structural_low": 1.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.044369, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.029258, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.547059, "worst_return": -0.350629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.160135, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.160525, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.487667, "worst_return": -0.389439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.320988, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.328751, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.364632, "worst_return": -0.779275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1.23, "volume": 57601, "typical_volume": 24808.65, "trend": 1.8315, "fair_value": 6.055929, "relative_strength": -46.146951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.745211, "energy": 60.288965, "activity_lines": [ 1.190333, 1.281745, 1.492286, 1.633905 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.235, "volume": 4022, "typical_volume": 24651.75, "trend": 1.792133, "fair_value": 5.939487, "relative_strength": -46.414667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.486686, "energy": 51.173182, "activity_lines": [ 1.207667, 1.251, 1.453348, 1.595422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }