{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c308a8cb-fc79-4f3f-8a30-1cc3a804a923", "symbol": "JAGA", "name": "JPM Global AggregateBond Active UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.11, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.516, "architecture_energy": 35.63, "architecture_maturity": 4.059, "architecture_confidence": 85.598, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.52, "rotation_up": 16.83, "upward_expansion": 10.84, "deceleration": 37.62, "rotation_down": 54.29, "downward_expansion": 77.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.5867, 11.603627, 11.612588, 11.620429 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.657, "trend_reference": 11.64845, "distance_from_trend": 0.000734, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.142573, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046168, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.715308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009895, "excess_performance": -0.092778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000734, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.6e-05, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046168, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007982, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097153, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072514, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006728, "annualized_volatility": 0.063077, "from_high_reference": -0.021735, "from_low_reference": 0.024476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.64845, "fair_value_reference": 11.142573, "structural_low": 11.3785, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.02854, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008408, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02278, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007781, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 9.9432, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-10-27", "close": 9.952, "volume": 58578, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 10.172, "volume": 11726, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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"direction": -15.969693, "energy": 13.426738, "activity_lines": [ 11.644433, 11.636336, 11.623788, 11.640915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.5875, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 159.4, "trend": 11.657617, "fair_value": 11.133658, "relative_strength": -9.921552, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.596499, "energy": 18.226861, "activity_lines": [ 11.6237, 11.628918, 11.62061, 11.636294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.4875, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 159.4, "trend": 11.651583, "fair_value": 11.136098, "relative_strength": -10.296683, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.224382, "energy": 57.03394, "activity_lines": [ 11.573667, 11.605336, 11.609471, 11.625318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.567, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 67.05, "trend": 11.6482, "fair_value": 11.139049, "relative_strength": -9.496228, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.913349, "energy": 54.304173, "activity_lines": [ 11.561767, 11.596436, 11.606952, 11.619861 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.657, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 67.05, "trend": 11.64845, "fair_value": 11.142573, "relative_strength": -9.715308, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.516013, "energy": 35.629864, "activity_lines": [ 11.5867, 11.603627, 11.612588, 11.620429 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }