{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c30cc500-564e-4559-a5e3-516990f401d4", "symbol": "TTN", "name": "Trane Technologies plc", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.584, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -5.138, "architecture_energy": 24.601, "architecture_maturity": 32.58, "architecture_confidence": 86.506, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.74, "rotation_up": 20.01, "upward_expansion": 61.22, "deceleration": 85.43, "rotation_down": 45.84, "downward_expansion": 24.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 8094.312012, 8194.761461, 8171.840602, 8111.24272 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7903.52002, "trend_reference": 7961.191455, "distance_from_trend": -0.007244, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6694.389024, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.349875, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0349, "excess_performance": 0.089567, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007244, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030477, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180619, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059054, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0349, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.389241, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.389241, "dry_up": 0.637997, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013276, "annualized_volatility": 0.181153, "from_high_reference": -0.082999, "from_low_reference": 0.158479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7961.191455, "fair_value_reference": 6694.389024, "structural_low": 7650.004427, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039408, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.065072, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.038252, "worst_return": -0.095489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.063726, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.021139, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113361, "worst_return": -0.00952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.036585, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.085404, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.109868, "worst_return": 0.021729, "sufficient": false }, { 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8346.066667, 8237.46068, 8161.828239, 8041.255227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8380.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 169.9, "trend": 7852.694108, "fair_value": 6603.507775, "relative_strength": 3.762336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.677458, "energy": 81.650937, "activity_lines": [ 8367.8, 8275.884677, 8189.862721, 8078.251868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8380.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 169.9, "trend": 7898.336149, "fair_value": 6636.185527, "relative_strength": 4.478536, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.324662, "energy": 69.349305, "activity_lines": [ 8380.5, 8309.843972, 8215.637442, 8112.303861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7903.52002, "volume": 497, "typical_volume": 194.75, "trend": 7925.151579, "fair_value": 6665.805714, "relative_strength": -1.701132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.531419, "energy": 22.898623, "activity_lines": [ 8221.506673, 8252.614933, 8193.730736, 8112.638304 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7903.52002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 194.75, "trend": 7961.191455, "fair_value": 6694.389024, "relative_strength": -1.349875, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.138219, "energy": 24.601438, "activity_lines": [ 8094.312012, 8194.761461, 8171.840602, 8111.24272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }