{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c30ecb8c-2484-44b7-ab1c-e449d8d63604", "symbol": "KOTYARK", "name": "KOTYARK INDUSTRIES LTD", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.2, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.051, "architecture_energy": 18.485, "architecture_maturity": 67.398, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.37, "rotation_up": 24.93, "upward_expansion": 42.42, "deceleration": 83.52, "rotation_down": 37.37, "downward_expansion": 34.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.762667, 36.565107, 37.235082, 35.891014 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.68, "trend_reference": 32.572484, "distance_from_trend": 0.248907, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.478265, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.304357, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 37.293448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.141053, "excess_performance": 1.184762, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.248907, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.304357, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071206, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.372934, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038544, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.141053, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.257088, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 962489, "relative_activity": 0.450509, "balance": 2.257088, "dry_up": 0.240419, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124298, "annualized_volatility": 0.737555, "from_high_reference": -0.104951, "from_low_reference": 1.340376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.572484, "fair_value_reference": 58.478265, "structural_low": 19.095453, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.147195, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.1287, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.422361, "worst_return": -0.271636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.18417, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.134675, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.71289, "worst_return": -0.103942, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.627346, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.510665, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.268774, "worst_return": -0.014082, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2443958.8, "trend": 31.498818, "fair_value": 58.665401, "relative_strength": 13.366756, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.681081, "energy": 16.00718, "activity_lines": [ 35.146, 36.648496, 37.216748, 35.212568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.23, "volume": 395479, "typical_volume": 2210235.0, "trend": 31.895272, "fair_value": 58.538723, "relative_strength": 14.413031, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.470074, "energy": 20.43191, "activity_lines": [ 33.805333, 35.859223, 36.871744, 35.324257 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.68, "volume": 962489, "typical_volume": 2136448.65, "trend": 32.572484, "fair_value": 58.478265, "relative_strength": 37.293448, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.050534, "energy": 18.485108, "activity_lines": [ 35.762667, 36.565107, 37.235082, 35.891014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }