{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3102556-1e75-444e-b65c-b74d5b48261b", "symbol": "COCO", "name": "WisdomTree Cocoa", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.203, "architecture_energy": 61.182, "architecture_maturity": 31.526, "architecture_confidence": 67.142, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.81, "rotation_up": 65.58, "upward_expansion": 83.87, "deceleration": 63.23, "rotation_down": 17.17, "downward_expansion": 10.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.931667, 7.608509, 6.786705, 6.283819 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.15, "trend_reference": 5.874967, "distance_from_trend": 0.387242, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.741734, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067691, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.808093, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.337601, "excess_performance": 0.166709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.387242, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068958, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.22914, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.355625, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.337601, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.847507, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 364034, "relative_activity": 0.646202, "balance": 0.847507, "dry_up": 0.671508, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104663, "annualized_volatility": 0.637711, "from_high_reference": -0.394502, "from_low_reference": 0.992665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.874967, "fair_value_reference": 8.741734, "structural_low": 4.09, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.045706, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.045255, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.560519, "worst_return": -0.246567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.078858, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.070972, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 1.484071, "worst_return": -0.280508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.269508, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.166857, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.241639, "worst_return": -0.307001, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126083, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.567427, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16935, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030193, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.187403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 65.982454, "energy": 86.160752, "activity_lines": [ 7.428133, 6.681636, 5.980557, 5.788348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.833, "volume": 499279, "typical_volume": 617972.95, "trend": 5.94, "fair_value": 8.650484, "relative_strength": -11.81081, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.863707, "energy": 79.230962, "activity_lines": [ 7.7336, 6.966545, 6.20579, 5.908948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.694, "volume": 260639, "typical_volume": 601209.75, "trend": 5.906067, "fair_value": 8.679596, "relative_strength": -11.840125, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.32551, "energy": 86.028222, "activity_lines": [ 7.833933, 7.191436, 6.400119, 6.02211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.683, "volume": 389207, "typical_volume": 573335.5, "trend": 5.870433, "fair_value": 8.708638, "relative_strength": -11.076089, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.388979, "energy": 78.163795, "activity_lines": [ 7.818867, 7.378073, 6.57795, 6.136751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.15, "volume": 364034, "typical_volume": 563343.9, "trend": 5.874967, "fair_value": 8.741734, "relative_strength": -6.808093, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.20307, "energy": 61.1823, "activity_lines": [ 7.931667, 7.608509, 6.786705, 6.283819 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }