{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3123445-80eb-429e-9576-b95632a03ffc", "symbol": "BUSER", "name": "Bambuser AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.8, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.972, "architecture_energy": 57.812, "architecture_maturity": 19.356, "architecture_confidence": 82.193, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.89, "rotation_up": 15.5, "upward_expansion": 27.08, "deceleration": 49.71, "rotation_down": 72.87, "downward_expansion": 59.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.813333, 20.283636, 23.246667, 23.165806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 17.6, "trend_reference": 21.780667, "distance_from_trend": -0.191944, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.650981, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.286032, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.19221, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.343511, "excess_performance": 0.282017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191944, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153102, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.286032, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.4066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.718621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.343511, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.235621, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7600, "relative_activity": 0.149944, "balance": 0.235621, "dry_up": 0.349088, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.21722, "annualized_volatility": 1.206718, "from_high_reference": -0.59447, "from_low_reference": 0.708738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.780667, "fair_value_reference": 24.650981, "structural_low": 11.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.04516, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.104065, "worst_return": -0.315907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.09998, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.153192, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240079, "worst_return": -0.363462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.191024, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.148483, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.601626, "worst_return": -0.778462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.496949, 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"2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.210687, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.248529, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.405405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": 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25.529048, 23.784088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.4, "volume": 9760, "typical_volume": 81197.7, "trend": 21.264933, "fair_value": 25.404314, "relative_strength": -5.552889, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.362161, "energy": 34.764102, "activity_lines": [ 21.386667, 23.218182, 25.114286, 23.74548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.4, "volume": 37796, "typical_volume": 79185.2, "trend": 21.493333, "fair_value": 25.113288, "relative_strength": -11.176633, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.408058, "energy": 51.20222, "activity_lines": [ 20.56, 22.192727, 24.571429, 23.625161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.4, "volume": 15619, "typical_volume": 75274.1, "trend": 21.626667, "fair_value": 24.885468, "relative_strength": -16.482556, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.374738, "energy": 55.596587, "activity_lines": [ 19.666667, 21.214545, 23.929048, 23.425591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.6, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 50685.65, "trend": 21.780667, "fair_value": 24.650981, "relative_strength": -21.19221, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.971816, "energy": 57.81249, "activity_lines": [ 18.813333, 20.283636, 23.246667, 23.165806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }