{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3146e50-71a8-4fd6-84a9-2d04d79e3018", "symbol": "HAKI-B", "name": "HAKI Safety AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 49.067, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.38, "architecture_energy": 69.271, "architecture_maturity": 37.485, "architecture_confidence": 71.113, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.95, "rotation_up": 74.3, "upward_expansion": 90.16, "deceleration": 42.01, "rotation_down": 12.23, "downward_expansion": 16.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.546666, 19.93, 19.546331, 19.347306 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.6, "trend_reference": 19.310553, "distance_from_trend": 0.118559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.881684, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012873, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.394161, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109374, "excess_performance": 0.04788, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118559, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017099, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012873, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118166, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130169, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109374, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.523982, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72504, "relative_activity": 3.028249, "balance": 2.523982, "dry_up": 1.67928, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06161, "annualized_volatility": 0.228523, "from_high_reference": -0.220704, "from_low_reference": 0.239889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.310553, "fair_value_reference": 21.881684, "structural_low": 17.420915, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.004717, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.011624, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.197115, "worst_return": -0.12782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.049817, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.003495, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.168269, "worst_return": -0.096491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.041609, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012985, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.408992, "worst_return": -0.140086, "sufficient": true }, { 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20021.95, "trend": 19.319431, "fair_value": 21.841111, "relative_strength": -10.794881, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.496997, "energy": 7.171305, "activity_lines": [ 19.196667, 19.13, 19.073971, 19.083146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.6, "volume": 18133, "typical_volume": 19935.8, "trend": 19.292845, "fair_value": 21.84722, "relative_strength": -10.471481, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.641313, "energy": 17.202285, "activity_lines": [ 19.356667, 19.223636, 19.137858, 19.101248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 27840, "typical_volume": 20732.05, "trend": 19.293245, "fair_value": 21.862177, "relative_strength": -5.68291, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.211558, "energy": 44.01711, "activity_lines": [ 19.88, 19.518182, 19.310302, 19.198483 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.6, "volume": 72504, "typical_volume": 23942.55, "trend": 19.310553, "fair_value": 21.881684, "relative_strength": -3.394161, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.379676, "energy": 69.271367, "activity_lines": [ 20.546666, 19.93, 19.546331, 19.347306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }