{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c324d5cb-96fd-4586-a7a6-abe01943ba50", "symbol": "DLX", "name": "Deluxe Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 73.691, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.735, "architecture_energy": 19.298, "architecture_maturity": 23.651, "architecture_confidence": 66.951, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.73, "rotation_up": 42.58, "upward_expansion": 27.96, "deceleration": 36.6, "rotation_down": 20.76, "downward_expansion": 48.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.546667, 25.042364, 25.145214, 25.573518 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.01, "trend_reference": 25.862513, "distance_from_trend": -0.032963, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.257023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298747, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.67908, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078717, "excess_performance": -0.204341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049221, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298747, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036791, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165594, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078717, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.906514, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2597600, "relative_activity": 1.245221, "balance": 0.906514, "dry_up": 0.925691, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079478, "annualized_volatility": 0.409249, "from_high_reference": -0.21012, "from_low_reference": 0.464833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.862513, "fair_value_reference": 19.257023, "structural_low": 21.81, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020302, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.000438, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.169927, "worst_return": -0.162043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022191, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.03637, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.174883, "worst_return": -0.345604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.101483, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.012197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.480233, "worst_return": -0.449299, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.091708, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169927, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055819, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079858, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 26.05, "volume": 1744674, "typical_volume": 2083155.05, "trend": 25.52399, "fair_value": 19.084557, "relative_strength": 5.818261, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.523275, "energy": 7.005048, "activity_lines": [ 24.801333, 24.281929, 25.212582, 25.578005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.02, "volume": 1458172, "typical_volume": 2083044.6, "trend": 25.652758, "fair_value": 19.152251, "relative_strength": 5.728513, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.250091, "energy": 17.983788, "activity_lines": [ 25.358667, 24.656909, 25.222424, 25.610006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.87, "volume": 1923720, "typical_volume": 2078425.1, "trend": 25.792801, "fair_value": 19.207716, "relative_strength": 3.344502, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.284915, "energy": 18.072276, "activity_lines": [ 25.660667, 24.947273, 25.223931, 25.624022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.01, "volume": 2597600, "typical_volume": 2086055.0, "trend": 25.862513, "fair_value": 19.257023, "relative_strength": -3.67908, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.735364, "energy": 19.298262, "activity_lines": [ 25.546667, 25.042364, 25.145214, 25.573518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }