{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c325ba6e-30e1-4c01-856f-86696dab5f83", "symbol": "BBCA", "name": "JPMORGAN BETABUILDERS CANADA ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.731, "architecture_energy": 83.21, "architecture_maturity": 38.107, "architecture_confidence": 72.754, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.47, "rotation_up": 79.11, "upward_expansion": 93.52, "deceleration": 42.17, "rotation_down": 11.07, "downward_expansion": 17.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 103.377333, 102.139098, 100.96057, 99.755969 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 105.77, "trend_reference": 98.268048, "distance_from_trend": 0.076342, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 75.390028, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.402971, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.790069, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120328, "excess_performance": -0.005297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076342, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038722, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.402971, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020407, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007901, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005365, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120328, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.606292, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1461833, "relative_activity": 1.094135, "balance": 1.606292, "dry_up": 0.859882, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021823, "annualized_volatility": 0.127671, "from_high_reference": -0.000189, "from_low_reference": 0.312339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.268048, "fair_value_reference": 75.390028, "structural_low": 90.909868, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.010699, "positive_rate": 0.575, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.007133, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.097694, "worst_return": -0.077581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.023513, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022541, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.137956, "worst_return": -0.149516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.056375, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.024827, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.18838, "worst_return": -0.227108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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101.522, 100.896215, 99.949852, 98.933065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.41, "volume": 1242663, "typical_volume": 1366152.0, "trend": 97.866774, "fair_value": 75.080699, "relative_strength": 1.127076, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.384115, "energy": 69.579175, "activity_lines": [ 101.978, 101.233312, 100.314235, 99.246083 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 105.77, "volume": 1461833, "typical_volume": 1336062.6, "trend": 98.268048, "fair_value": 75.390028, "relative_strength": 0.790069, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.731361, "energy": 83.210051, "activity_lines": [ 103.377333, 102.139098, 100.96057, 99.755969 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }