{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c32613bb-959f-461a-9ddd-720d1411b7e8",
    "symbol": "FBCG",
    "name": "FIDELITY BLUE CHIP GROWTH ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 92.859,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 52.389,
    "architecture_energy": 26.456,
    "architecture_maturity": 51.613,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.76,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.12,
        "rotation_up": 33.32,
        "upward_expansion": 57.31,
        "deceleration": 87.62,
        "rotation_down": 26.23,
        "downward_expansion": 18.64
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        60.834,
        60.866727,
        60.594619,
        59.005828
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 62.74,
    "trend_reference": 57.133,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.098139,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 45.200356,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.388042,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 0.771562,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.169868,
    "excess_performance": 0.044243,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.098139,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039625,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.388042,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038532,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007716,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.028559,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.169868,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.623471,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4127609,
      "relative_activity": 1.290141,
      "balance": 2.623471,
      "dry_up": 0.924116,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.044419,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.220416,
      "from_high_reference": -0.024565,
      "from_low_reference": 0.318067
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 57.133,
      "fair_value_reference": 45.200356,
      "structural_low": 47.6,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.005617,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001015,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.134829,
        "worst_return": -0.076217,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.028507,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003785,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.180068,
        "worst_return": -0.228768,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.158547,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.028687,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.23062,
        "worst_return": -0.33972,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.226946,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.068373,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.347915,
        "worst_return": -0.361167,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.050057,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.145573,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.136364,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0316,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.100792,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.056706,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001645,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.018715,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031326,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.054645,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.149107,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.031787,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-15",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.016885,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.060514,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "energy": 43.810888,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 3187179.35,
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        "fair_value": 44.429839,
        "relative_strength": 2.490069,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 63.771679,
        "energy": 45.118675,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 2161439,
        "typical_volume": 3174657.15,
        "trend": 56.613333,
        "fair_value": 44.619312,
        "relative_strength": 0.226898,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.993247,
        "energy": 30.546006,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 59.16,
        "volume": 2657534,
        "typical_volume": 3160443.65,
        "trend": 56.733,
        "fair_value": 44.799049,
        "relative_strength": -0.560513,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.517592,
        "energy": 25.567217,
        "activity_lines": [
          60.296,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 59.78,
        "volume": 2879693,
        "typical_volume": 3175384.2,
        "trend": 56.894,
        "fair_value": 44.988328,
        "relative_strength": -0.612564,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.697033,
        "energy": 19.732044,
        "activity_lines": [
          60.072,
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          58.628667
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 62.74,
        "volume": 4127609,
        "typical_volume": 3199347.75,
        "trend": 57.133,
        "fair_value": 45.200356,
        "relative_strength": 0.771562,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.389352,
        "energy": 26.45597,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}