{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c32ddf71-5c53-462b-92d9-0b33846f270b", "symbol": "EFSI", "name": "Eagle Financial Services Inc Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.926, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.165, "architecture_energy": 27.924, "architecture_maturity": 29.272, "architecture_confidence": 46.822, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.18, "rotation_up": 38.26, "upward_expansion": 66.17, "deceleration": 64.54, "rotation_down": 22.9, "downward_expansion": 9.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.952056, 41.026792, 40.365233, 39.314174 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.72, "trend_reference": 38.389802, "distance_from_trend": 0.086747, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.490729, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284059, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.126419, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.076541, "excess_performance": -0.110913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086747, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031687, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284059, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07904, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072896, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076541, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.930033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 367218, "relative_activity": 1.770796, "balance": 0.930033, "dry_up": 1.651693, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063994, "annualized_volatility": 0.290613, "from_high_reference": -0.051818, "from_low_reference": 0.338485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.389802, "fair_value_reference": 32.490729, "structural_low": 31.169567, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.022899, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.131944, "worst_return": -0.11691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006034, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.014651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14339, "worst_return": -0.021772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03905, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.014445, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.203464, "worst_return": -0.057454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027251, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033552, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11691, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": 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38.245526, "fair_value": 32.331418, "relative_strength": -1.371055, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.365363, "energy": 25.277993, "activity_lines": [ 40.795215, 41.006962, 39.925695, 38.964489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.239617, "volume": 425766, "typical_volume": 193511.35, "trend": 38.293974, "fair_value": 32.405518, "relative_strength": -1.762438, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.838653, "energy": 21.817274, "activity_lines": [ 40.592892, 40.892475, 40.094063, 39.09314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.72, "volume": 367218, "typical_volume": 207374.5, "trend": 38.389802, "fair_value": 32.490729, "relative_strength": -3.126419, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.164789, "energy": 27.923724, "activity_lines": [ 40.952056, 41.026792, 40.365233, 39.314174 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }