{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c32f4a91-4e95-4710-81a2-86e21e019b32", "symbol": "FPEI", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD III INSTITUTIONAL PFD SECS & INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.323, "architecture_energy": 23.723, "architecture_maturity": 37.389, "architecture_confidence": 67.987, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.87, "rotation_up": 37.98, "upward_expansion": 61.44, "deceleration": 79.18, "rotation_down": 30.88, "downward_expansion": 22.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.139015, 19.147228, 19.125373, 19.092491 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.2, "trend_reference": 19.071392, "distance_from_trend": 0.006744, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.307126, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.606996, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004595, "excess_performance": -0.121029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006744, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00498, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022871, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009787, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004595, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.457069, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1578497, "relative_activity": 0.872144, "balance": 1.457069, "dry_up": 0.836161, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005001, "annualized_volatility": 0.043592, "from_high_reference": -0.003872, "from_low_reference": 0.057133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.071392, "fair_value_reference": 17.307126, "structural_low": 18.527648, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.004866, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.009271, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.035064, "worst_return": -0.052988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.016192, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.035354, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.057882, "worst_return": -0.072416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045115, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.046989, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.0861, "worst_return": -0.048456, 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39.834801, "energy": 29.218383, "activity_lines": [ 19.146054, 19.148173, 19.107916, 19.082795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.08, "volume": 1702513, "typical_volume": 1791915.1, "trend": 19.066459, "fair_value": 17.277857, "relative_strength": -7.286306, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.533785, "energy": 17.68478, "activity_lines": [ 19.120359, 19.136969, 19.111358, 19.083876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.2, "volume": 1578497, "typical_volume": 1809903.95, "trend": 19.071392, "fair_value": 17.307126, "relative_strength": -9.606996, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.322947, "energy": 23.722602, "activity_lines": [ 19.139015, 19.147228, 19.125373, 19.092491 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }