{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c331f3d5-9ec4-44d5-a746-4dc4311508d8", "symbol": "002351", "name": "Edifier Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.965, "architecture_energy": 21.668, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.655, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.06, "rotation_up": 27.43, "upward_expansion": 14.91, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 30.47, "downward_expansion": 64.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.098, 9.942364, 10.254798, 10.53452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.16, "trend_reference": 10.9829, "distance_from_trend": -0.074926, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.107748, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.224886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.071102, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.16029, "excess_performance": -0.167689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074926, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064758, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.224886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034281, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104565, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.040953, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41092167, "relative_activity": 1.164042, "balance": 1.040953, "dry_up": 1.520084, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072131, "annualized_volatility": 0.283081, "from_high_reference": -0.309858, "from_low_reference": 0.127636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.9829, "fair_value_reference": 13.107748, "structural_low": 9.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.005476, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.02799, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.268577, "worst_return": -0.194872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.077103, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.078246, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.476923, "worst_return": -0.187558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.080953, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.069584, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.164679, "worst_return": -0.323014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.211528, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.240272, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.025021, "worst_return": -0.235074, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156012, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.048435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136122, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.270588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101511, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082414, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013449, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", 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"activity_lines": [ 9.732667, 9.881273, 10.308071, 10.635861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.4, "volume": 43104572, "typical_volume": 34514408.0, "trend": 11.039036, "fair_value": 13.149442, "relative_strength": -11.464028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.667647, "energy": 31.3723, "activity_lines": [ 9.996, 9.928, 10.290313, 10.591232 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.16, "volume": 41092167, "typical_volume": 35301263.8, "trend": 10.9829, "fair_value": 13.107748, "relative_strength": -17.071102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.964747, "energy": 21.667525, "activity_lines": [ 10.098, 9.942364, 10.254798, 10.53452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }